中国城市群生态系统服务权衡协同多情景模拟

张宇; 陈万旭; 王官政; 吴佳慧; 曾杰; 刘志玲

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (10) : 5742-5755.

环境生态

中国城市群生态系统服务权衡协同多情景模拟

张宇¹, 陈万旭¹, 王官政¹, 吴佳慧¹, 曾杰¹, 刘志玲²

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Multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies in Chinese urban agglomerations

ZHANG Yu¹, CHEN Wan-xu¹, WANG Guan-zheng¹, WU Jia-hui¹, ZENG Jie¹, LIU Zhi-ling²

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摘要

科学预测未来中国城市群多情景下生态系统服务的权衡协同关系,为区域可持续发展提供重要依据.本研究基于2000、2010、2020年的多源数据,采用PLUS-InVEST模型和权衡/协同测度的方法,分析了2000、2010、2020和2030年多情景下中国城市群的土地利用变化、生态系统服务时空特征以及权衡协同关系.结果表明:2000~2020年城市群耕地、林地、草地、未利用地面积持续缩减,分别下降了6.30x10⁴km²、7.49x10³km²、2.88x10⁴km²、1.09x10⁴km²;情景模拟表明,生态保护路径有助于遏制其退化趋势.总体上,中国南部城市群生态系统服务水平优于北方城市群;生态保护情景下的生态系统服务水平优于其他情景.城市群各生态系统服务之间均呈现协同关系.研究结果有利于提升中国城市群生态系统服务效益,为制定精细化的管理措施和政策提供支持.

Abstract

Scientifically predicting the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services under multiple scenarios provides an important basis for the sustainable development of Chinese urban agglomerations. Based on multi-source datasets for 2001, 2010 and 2020, the study employed the PLUS-InVEST modelling framework together with trade-offs and synergies measurement methods to analyze land use change, characterize the spatiotemporal features of ecosystem services, and assess their trade-offs and synergies relationships in Chinese urban agglomerations for 2000, 2010, 2020, and scenarios in 2030. The results showed that between 2000 and 2020, the areas of cropland, forest land, grassland, unused land within Chinese urban agglomerations declined continuously, decreasing by 6.30x10⁴km²、7.49x10³km²、2.88x10⁴km²、1.09x10⁴km², respectively. Scenario simulations indicated that the ecological protection scenario effectively curbed these degradation trends. Overall, the ecosystem service levels of urban agglomerations in southern China were higher than those in the north, and the ecological protection scenario yielded higher levels than the other scenarios. Synergistic relationships consistently existed between ecosystem services in urban agglomerations. The findings contributed to enhancing the effectiveness of ecosystem services in Chinese urban agglomerations and provided support for formulating management measures and policy interventions.

导出引用

张宇, 陈万旭, 王官政, 吴佳慧, 曾杰, 刘志玲. 中国城市群生态系统服务权衡协同多情景模拟[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(10): 5742-5755

ZHANG Yu, CHEN Wan-xu, WANG Guan-zheng, WU Jia-hui, ZENG Jie, LIU Zhi-ling. Multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies in Chinese urban agglomerations[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(10): 5742-5755

中图分类号： X171.1

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