基于汽车全生命周期视角,评估2019~2023年全国新能源汽车推广使用对环境污染物减排和健康效益的影响.采用排放因子法测算环境污染物减排效果,通过暴露-反应模型分析污染物浓度变化对健康的影响,结合生命价值法和疾病成本法对健康效益进行货币化分析,并运用蒙特卡洛模拟进行不确定性分析.结果显示:环境效应方面,在空间格局上,新能源汽车的减排效果呈现显著的异质性,沿海地区的减排效果优于内陆地区.在时间演变上,CO2、NOx、VOCs和SO2的减排量逐年上升,然而新能源汽车相比传统燃油汽车会排放更多的PM2.5.在地区层面,中南地区CO2减排量最大,西北地区最小,且年均增长率地区差异较大;华东地区在VOCs和NOx减排上表现突出,东北地区年均增长率较高;SO2减排效果两极分化,部分地区甚至出现增排现象;PM2.5的减排情况较为复杂,部分地区出现增排.在车型层面,新能源客车在减少PM2.5、NOx和SO2等污染物排放方面效果优于新能源乘用车,而新能源乘用车在减少CO2和VOCs方面优势明显.健康效应方面,新能源汽车推广使用显著降低死亡率和患病率,尤其是PM2.5减排效果最为突出,且健康效益逐年递增.货币化效益方面,新能源汽车推广使用带来的健康效益货币化价值逐年上升,SO2的货币化价值在研究期内增长幅度最为显著(77.05%),PM2.5贡献最大.不同地区的健康效益货币化价值存在空间差异,沿海及部分中部地区转化为较高经济价值,而中西部地区相对较低.
Abstract
This study evaluated the environmental pollutant reduction and health benefits of new energy vehicle (NEV) promotion in China from 2019 to 2023 through a vehicle life cycle perspective. The emission factor method was employed to quantify pollutant reduction effects, while exposure-response model was used to analyze health impacts from pollutant concentration changes. Health benefits were monetized using the value of statistical life (VSL) method and disease cost method, with uncertainty assessment through the Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that: In terms of spatial environmental effects, the emission reduction effects of new energy vehicles showed significant heterogeneity, and the emission reduction effects in coastal regions were better than that in inland regions. In terms of time evolution, the emission reduction of CO2, NOx, VOCs and SO2 increased year by year, though NEVs emitted more PM2.5 than conventional vehicles. Regional disparities emerged with South Central China achieving maximum CO2 reduction versus minimal reductions in Northwest China, accompanied by significant inter-regional growth rate variations. East China dominated in VOCs and NOx reduction, while Northeast China exhibited higher annual growth rates. SO2 reduction displayed polarization, with some regions experiencing emission increases. PM2.5 dynamics proved complex, showing emission growth in certain regions. Vehicle-type analysis indicated NEV buses outperformed passenger vehicles in reducing PM2.5, NOx and SO2, while passenger vehicles demonstrated advantages in CO2 and VOCs reduction. Health benefits analysis revealed NEV adoption significantly reduced mortality and morbidity rates, with PM2.5 mitigation showing particular prominence, and health improvements exhibited annual growth. Monetized health benefits demonstrated sustained growth, with SO2-related monetary value showing the most significant increase (77.05%) during the study period, though PM2.5 contributed the largest absolute value. Regional disparities emerged in monetary benefits, with coastal and central regions generating higher economic value compared to western regions.
关键词
新能源汽车 /
环境效应 /
健康效益 /
货币化
Key words
new energy vehicles /
environmental effects /
health benefits /
monetization
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基金
中央高校建设一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金资助项目(21XNL006);中国人民大学博士研究生文理交叉资助项目;中国人民大学2025年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划项目
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