中国O3暴露与健康风险时空演变及不平等的双维分区管控

孔少杰; 易洪涛

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (10) : 5873-5884.

环境毒理与健康

中国O₃暴露与健康风险时空演变及不平等的双维分区管控

孔少杰, 易洪涛

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Spatialtemporal evolution of O₃ exposure and health risks and unequal two-dimensional zoning control in China

KONG Shao-jie, YI Hong-tao

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摘要

基于2015~2020年臭氧日最大8h滑动平均值的第90百分位数(O₃-8h-90),采用暴露风险评估、健康风险评估、空间自相关分析和相关性分析等方法,研究了中国337个城市O₃暴露与健康风险时空演变特征及相关性.利用基尼系数方法分析了省域暴露风险与健康风险的不平等性,并建立O₃暴露-健康不平等双维分区等级.结果表明:2015~2020年O₃暴露风险和早逝人口表现出相似的区域性和时间演变趋势,两者的热点区域高度吻合,主要集中在我国的中东部地区.各年度O₃暴露风险和早逝人口的Pearson相关系数(r)在0.841~0.856,说明两者之间存在显著的正相关性,暴露风险的增高导致早逝人口数量的上升.O₃暴露风险基尼系数(G_e)和健康风险基尼系数(G_h)的范围分别在0.1430~0.5090和0.1020~0.5600,两者范围较大,说明O₃暴露与健康风险在全国不同地区之间的分布存在显著的不均衡性.各年度G_e和G_h之间的r在0.563~0.728之间,表明暴露风险的不均衡性会显著加剧健康风险分布的不均衡性.为进一步减少暴露与健康风险之间的区域差异,将各省划分为“双重失衡区”、“暴露主导区”、“健康脆弱区”和“平衡发展区”四个等级,并提出了分区治理方案,为O₃精确治理与资源配置提供了政策建议.

Abstract

Based on the 90th percentile of the maximum 8-hour ozone daily sliding average (O₃-8h-90) from 2015 to 2020, exposure risk assessment, health risk assessment, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and correlation analysis methods were used to study the spatialtemporal characteristics of O₃ exposure and health risk in Chinese 337 cities. Moreover, the inequality in provincial exposure and health risk was analyzed using the Gini coefficient, and the two-dimensional partition grade of O₃ exposure-health inequality was established. The results showed that the spatialtemporal characteristics of O₃ exposure risk and premature mortality exhibited similar regional and temporal trends from 2015 to 2020, with hotspot areas highly coincident and primarily concentrated in central and eastern China. The Pearson correlation coefficients between O₃ exposure risk and premature mortality for each year ranged from 0.841 to 0.856, indicating a significant positive correlation, with an increase in exposure risk leading to a rise in premature mortality. The Gini coefficients for O₃ exposure risk (G_e) and health risk (G_h) ranged from 0.1430 to 0.5090 and 0.1020 to 0.5600, respectively, showing a wide range of values, which suggests a significant inequality in the distribution of O₃ exposure and health risks across different regions of the country. The Pearson correlation coefficients between G_e and G_h ranged from 0.563 to 0.728 each year, indicating that inequality in exposure risk significantly exacerbates the uneven distribution of health risk. To further reduce regional disparities in exposure and health risks, the provinces were classified into four categories: “Double Imbalance Zones”, “Exposure Dominant Zones”, “Health Vulnerable Zones”, and “Balanced Development Zones”. A zoning governance plan was proposed to provide policy recommendations for precise governance and resource allocation.

导出引用

孔少杰, 易洪涛. 中国O₃暴露与健康风险时空演变及不平等的双维分区管控[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(10): 5873-5884

KONG Shao-jie, YI Hong-tao. Spatialtemporal evolution of O₃ exposure and health risks and unequal two-dimensional zoning control in China[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(10): 5873-5884

中图分类号： X503.1

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