不同热浪强度对邯郸市呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数影响的生态学研究

张兴山; 付桂琴; 刘华悦; 李猛; 张阳; 赵亮

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (11) : 6433-6439.

环境毒理与健康

不同热浪强度对邯郸市呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数影响的生态学研究

张兴山¹, 付桂琴^2,3, 刘华悦², 李猛¹, 张阳¹, 赵亮⁴

作者信息 +

An ecological study of the effects of varying heatwave intensities on outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Handan city

ZHANG Xing-shan¹, FU Gui-qin^2,3, LIU Hua-yue², LI Meng¹, ZHANG Yang¹, ZHAO Liang⁴

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文章历史 +

摘要

基于2016~2021年邯郸市逐日呼吸系统门诊数据、气象监测数据以及空气污染数据,采用广义加性模型(GAM)评估了12种热浪(采用P96~P99百分位阈值,持续2~4d)对呼吸系统疾病的就诊风险.结果显示,热浪事件的发生频率和持续时间呈显著定义依赖性,气温在P99百分位阈值且持续4d的极端热浪6a仅出现2次(9d),而P96百分位阈值且持续2d的达到20次(66d);热浪期温度高于非热浪期,且温度变异性降低,日均门诊量存在明显差异;热浪影响期间,持续时间2~3d以上的热浪,风险随强度增加先升后降,持续时间4d以上的热浪,风险随强度增加逐渐降低;P96~P98热浪显著风险峰出现在lag3-5,P99热浪的风险高峰出现在lag1;长持续热浪(d4)的风险明显高于短期热浪(d2),且影响更为持久;热浪均呈现"双峰滞后模式",急性期(lag0-3)和延迟期(lag5-7),低强度且短持续时间热浪的风险曲线较为平缓,而高强度且长持续时间热浪的风险曲线波动幅度较大.本研究为建立动态热浪健康预警系统提供了区域适应性证据.

Abstract

In the context of global climate change, the health impacts of heatwave events exhibit marked regional heterogeneity, posing a severe threat to public health. This study analyzed daily respiratory disease outpatient data, meteorological monitoring data, and air pollution data from Handan City (2016~2021) using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to evaluate the risk of respiratory disease visits under 12 heatwave definitions (based on P96-P99 percentile thresholds lasting 2~4 days). Results demonstrate significant definition-dependent variability in heatwave frequency and duration: extreme heatwaves (P99 threshold, ³4days) occurred only twice (9 cumulative days) over six years, while moderate heatwaves (P96 threshold, ³2days) reached 20 occurrences (66 cumulative days). During heatwave periods, temperatures were significantly higher with reduced variability compared to non-heatwave periods, accompanied by statistically significant differences in daily outpatient volumes.Forheatwaves lasting 2~3 days, health risks initially increased and then decreased with rising intensity, whereas for events lasting ³4 days, risks progressively declined with increasing intensity. Peak risks for P96-P98-defined heatwaves occurred at lag 3~5 days, while P99-defined extreme heatwaves showed immediate peak risks at lag1day. Long-duration heatwaves (³4days) posed significantly higher and more prolonged risks compared to short-duration events (³2days). All heatwave types exhibited a "bimodal lag pattern" with acute (lag 0~3) and delayed (lag 5~7) effect phases. The risk profile for low-intensity, short-duration heatwaves was relatively stable, whereas high-intensity, long-duration events demonstrated greater risk fluctuations. These findings provide regionally tailored evidence to inform the development of dynamic heatwave health early warning systems.

导出引用

张兴山, 付桂琴, 刘华悦, 李猛, 张阳, 赵亮. 不同热浪强度对邯郸市呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数影响的生态学研究[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(11): 6433-6439

ZHANG Xing-shan, FU Gui-qin, LIU Hua-yue, LI Meng, ZHANG Yang, ZHAO Liang. An ecological study of the effects of varying heatwave intensities on outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Handan city[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(11): 6433-6439

中图分类号： X503

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