淮河流域区域背景臭氧时空变化及驱动因素分析

刘晓咏; 颜俊; 苏方成; 姚丹; 李洪瑞; 郜彗; 魏巍

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (12) : 6560-6570.

大气污染与控制

淮河流域区域背景臭氧时空变化及驱动因素分析

刘晓咏^1,2, 颜俊¹, 苏方成³, 姚丹⁴, 李洪瑞¹, 郜彗^1,2, 魏巍^1,2

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Analysis of spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of regional background ozone in the Huai River Basin

LIU Xiao-yong^1,2, YAN Jun¹, SU Fang-cheng³, YAO Dan⁴, LI Hong-rui¹, GAO Hui^1,2, WEI Wei^1,2

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摘要

为了解淮河流域近年来臭氧(O₃)污染变化趋势及区域背景的贡献,基于2014~2024年中国大气成分近实时追踪数据集(TAP)和ERA5_Land气象再分析数据集,利用主成分分析(PCA)法和美国德克萨斯州环境质量委员会(TCEQ)提出的区域背景估算方法,计算淮河流域区域背景(没有前体物排放时的O₃浓度)对O₃的贡献率,并结合极端梯度提升模型(XGBoost)和沙普利加和解释模型(SHAP)探讨气象因子对区域背景O₃的影响.结果表明,2014~2024年,淮河流域O₃日最大8h滑动平均(O₃-8h)浓度以2.87μg/(m³·a)的速度增长.PCA法和TCEQ法估算的区域背景O₃具有高度相关性(R²= 0.89,P<0.01),但PCA法的结果比TCEQ略高,在暖季结果差异显著降低.经估算,区域背景对淮河流域2014~2024年r(O₃-8h)的平均贡献率为85.8%,对4个区域核心城市郑州、合肥、青岛和徐州的贡献率为71.1%~86.0%.2014~2024年淮河流域区域背景贡献率平均升高11.5%,区域传输的加剧是导致地表O₃浓度升高的重要原因之一.区域背景O₃受多种气象因子的非线性影响,春季和秋季的主控因子为地表太阳向下辐射,夏季为地表2m温度,冬季为地表2m温度和地表太阳向下辐射.总体上,高湿度、强地表向下热辐射、高气压、强西风和强北风会抑制淮河流域区域背景O₃浓度.

Abstract

To understand the recent trends in ozone (O₃) pollution and the contribution of regional background in the Huai River Basin (HRB), this study utilized the Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) dataset (2014~2024) and ERA5_Land meteorological reanalysis data. Principal component analysis (PCA) and the regional background estimation method proposed by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) were employed to calculate the contribution rate of regional background O₃ (O₃ concentration without precursor emissions) in the HRB. Additionally, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied to explore the influence of meteorological factors on regional background O₃.The results indicate that from 2014 to 2024, the daily maximum 8-hour average (O₃-8h) concentration in the HRB increased at a rate of 2.87 μg/m³ per year. The regional background O₃ estimated by PCA and TCEQ exhibited a strong correlation (R² = 0.89, P< 0.01), though PCA-derived values were slightly higher, with significantly reduced differences during warm seasons. The estimated average contribution of regional background to O₃-8h in the HRB was 85.8%, with contributions ranging from 71.1% to 86.0% in four key cities (Zhengzhou, Hefei, Qingdao, and Xuzhou). Over the study period, the regional background contribution rate increased by an average of 11.5%, suggesting that enhanced regional transport is a major factor driving elevated surface O₃ levels.Regional background O₃ was influenced nonlinearly by multiple meteorological factors. The dominant factors were surface downward solar radiation in spring and autumn, 2-meter temperature in summer, and a combination of 2-meter temperature and surface downward solar radiation in winter. Overall, high humidity, strong downward surface thermal radiation, high pressure, and strong westerly/northerly winds suppressed regional background O₃ concentrations in the HRB.

导出引用

刘晓咏, 颜俊, 苏方成, 姚丹, 李洪瑞, 郜彗, 魏巍. 淮河流域区域背景臭氧时空变化及驱动因素分析[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(12): 6560-6570

LIU Xiao-yong, YAN Jun, SU Fang-cheng, YAO Dan, LI Hong-rui, GAO Hui, WEI Wei. Analysis of spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of regional background ozone in the Huai River Basin[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(12): 6560-6570

中图分类号： X511

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