气象和人类活动对长江经济带植被固碳的影响

沈园; 康平; 刘琰琰; 冯浩鹏; 李路丹; 秦文霜; 修蒙

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (12) : 6943-6953.

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气象和人类活动对长江经济带植被固碳的影响

沈园¹, 康平^1,2, 刘琰琰^1,2, 冯浩鹏^1,3,4, 李路丹¹, 秦文霜¹, 修蒙^1,2

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Impacts of meteorological factors and human activities on vegetation carbon sequestration in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

SHEN Yuan¹, KANG Ping^1,2, LIU Yan-yan^1,2, FENG Hao-peng^1,3,4, LI Lu-dan¹, QIN Wen-shuang¹, XIU Meng^1,2

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摘要

基于2001~2020年的植被遥感数据和气象数据,利用趋势分析、变异系数、二阶偏相关等方法对长江经济带植被固碳能力(CSC)的时空变化特征及影响因子进行了分析,并结合偏导数方法定量评估具体气象因子(气温、降水、辐射)及人类活动对长江经济带不同区域CSC的贡献量.结果表明:①近20年来长江经济带多年平均CSC为2505.4gCO₂/m²,CSC整体呈波动上升趋势,多年平均增长趋势为8.9gCO₂/(m²·a),其中极显著增长区域(P<0.01)的面积占比25.6%.②长江经济带气温和降水均在16.0%以上的区域表现为显著增加趋势,与CSC的关系主要为正偏相关性;辐射则在6.3%的区域表现为显著减少趋势,且辐射与CSC的关系主要为负偏相关性.③气象因子和人类活动在整体上对CSC均表现为正贡献(使CSC增加),其中人类活动的贡献量最大,达到了+16.35gCO₂/(m²·a) (86.7%);其次是降水的贡献(+1.28gCO₂/(m²·a),6.77%),在上游省份均表现为正贡献,在中、下游省份则更多表现为负贡献;辐射与气温对于CSC的贡献均较少,辐射在贵州与上海两省表现为负贡献,气温则在所有省份均表现为正贡献.

Abstract

Based on vegetation remote sensing and meteorological data from 2001 to 2020, the spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of vegetation carbon sequestration capacity(CSC) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB) were analyzed using trend analysis, coefficient of variation, and second-order partial correlation. Furthermore, the partial derivative method was applied to quantitatively assess the contributions of specific meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation, radiation) and human activities to CSC across different sub-regions of the YREB. The results showed that: (1) The multi-year average CSC in the YREB was 2505.4gCO₂/m², with an overall fluctuating upward trend and a multi-year average growth rate of 8.9gCO₂/(m²·a). Areas with extremely significant increases (P<0.01) accounted for 25.6% of the region. (2) Significant increased trends in both temperature and precipitation were observed in more than 16.0% of the area, and they were mainly positively correlated with CSC. In contrast, a significant decreased trend in radiation was observed in 6.3% of the area, and it was mainly negatively correlated with CSC. (3) Both meteorological factors and human activities exerted overall positive contributions to CSC (leading to increases in CSC), among which the largest contribution was attributed to human activities (+16.35gCO₂/(m²·a), 86.7%), followed by precipitation (+1.28gCO₂/ (m²·a), 6.77%), which contributed positively in the upstream provinces but negatively in the middle and lower reaches. Smaller contributions were attributed to radiation and temperature; a negative contribution of radiation was observed in Guizhou and Shanghai, while positive contributions of temperature were found in all provinces.

导出引用

沈园, 康平, 刘琰琰, 冯浩鹏, 李路丹, 秦文霜, 修蒙. 气象和人类活动对长江经济带植被固碳的影响[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(12): 6943-6953

SHEN Yuan, KANG Ping, LIU Yan-yan, FENG Hao-peng, LI Lu-dan, QIN Wen-shuang, XIU Meng. Impacts of meteorological factors and human activities on vegetation carbon sequestration in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(12): 6943-6953

中图分类号： X171 P966.1/.7

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