贵州省生态系统服务权衡/协同与簇情景模拟

黄贤凤; 勾容; 苏维词

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2) : 966-980.

环境生态

贵州省生态系统服务权衡/协同与簇情景模拟

黄贤凤¹, 勾容¹, 苏维词^1,2

作者信息 +

Scenario simulation of ecosystem service tradeoff-synergy and bundles in Guizhou Province

HUANG Xian-feng¹, GOU Rong¹, SU Wei-ci^1,2

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文章历史 +

摘要

耦合InVEST-PLUS模型,测算和剖析了2000~2030年不同情景下贵州省4种生态系统服务的时空动态,基于斯皮尔曼相关性(Spearman)分析各服务功能之间的权衡/协同关系,并利用自组织特征映射网络揭示了其生态系统服务簇.结果显示:2000~2020年,土地结构变化主要表现为:耕地的持续减少和林地及草地波动变化,建设用地出现大幅度扩张, 3种情景下自然发展情景的建设用地上升最为显著,增幅为25.39%,生态保护情景中林地与草地等主要生态用地得到保护.产水量和土壤保持在2000~2020年间呈先降后升的波动变化趋势,而生境质量和碳储量呈下降趋势,碳储量的平均值由234.05t/hm²降低到231.70t/hm²,生境质量的平均值由0.64降低至0.60;相对而言,在生态保护情景中,除产水量略有下降外,其他生态功能指标均有改善,尤其是碳储量及生境质量均达到最高值.研究区生态系统服务功能间的权衡(3对)和协同(3对)呈现相对均衡状态;在生态保护情景下,不同生态系统服务之间的相关系数逐渐增大,区域整体环境呈变好趋势.根据聚类结果识别了贵州省4类生态系统服务簇(ESB),2000~2030 年研究区各类生态系统服务簇空间格局基本保持稳定状态但各类ESB存在时空异质性.

Abstract

The InVEST-PLUS model was coupled to calculate and analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of four types of ecosystem services in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2030 under different scenarios. Based on Spearman’s correlation analysis, the trade-offs/synergies between various service functions were examined, and self-organizing feature mapping networks were utilized to reveal the ecosystem service bundles. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the changes in land structure were mainly characterized by the continuous decrease of arable land and the fluctuating changes of forest and grassland, with a significant expansion of construction land. The natural development scenario showed the most significant increase in construction land among the three scenarios, with an increase of 25.39%, while in the ecological protection scenario, the main ecological land such as forest and grassland were protected. The water yield and soil conservation showed a fluctuating trend of first decreasing and then increasing from 2000 to 2020, while habitat quality and carbon storage showed a declining trend. The average value of carbon storage decreased from 234.05t/hm² to 231.70t/hm², and the average value of habitat quality decreased from 0.64 to 0.60. Relatively, in the ecological protection scenario, except for a slight decrease in water yield, other ecological function indicators improved, especially carbon storage and habitat quality, which reached the highest values. The trade-offs (3pairs) and synergies (3pairs) between ecosystem service functions in the study area showed a relatively balanced state. Under the ecological protection scenario, the correlation coefficients between different ecosystem services gradually increased, indicating an overall trend of environmental improvement in the region. Based on the clustering results, four types of ecosystem service bundles (ESB) were identified in Guizhou Province. From 2000 to 2030, the spatial pattern of various ecosystem service clusters in the study area remained basically stable, but there was spatial and temporal heterogeneity among different ESBs.

导出引用

黄贤凤, 勾容, 苏维词. 贵州省生态系统服务权衡/协同与簇情景模拟[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(2): 966-980

HUANG Xian-feng, GOU Rong, SU Wei-ci. Scenario simulation of ecosystem service tradeoff-synergy and bundles in Guizhou Province[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(2): 966-980

中图分类号： X32

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