MAGIC动态模型模拟预测我国亚热带森林土壤和地表水化学对氮硫沉降降低的响应

周剑兴; 李秉珍; 韩怡蒙; 夏凡; 谢丹妮

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5) : 2700-2712.

环境生态

MAGIC动态模型模拟预测我国亚热带森林土壤和地表水化学对氮硫沉降降低的响应

周剑兴, 李秉珍, 韩怡蒙, 夏凡, 谢丹妮

作者信息 +

Simulation and prediction of subtropical forest soil and surface water chemistry responses to reduced nitrogen and sulfur deposition in China using the MAGIC dynamic model

ZHOU Jian-xing, LI Bing-zhen, HAN Yi-meng, XIA Fan, XIE Dan-ni

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摘要

以我国西南部重庆铁山坪亚热带森林为研究对象,运用动态模型MAGIC,结合长期观测数据,预测酸沉降减少后土壤和地表水化学的长期响应.模拟结果表明基于“十四五”的排放控制政策(到2025年SO₂排放总量保持与2020年相同,NO_x和氨气(NH₃)排放总量比2020年分别下降10%以上和8%)设置的“实际减排”情景,到2050年亚热带森林土壤水(S1和S2)和地表水(SW)硫酸根(SO₄^2-)浓度先升高,到2028年之后保持平稳,2021~2050年其平均值分别为1426,1414和938èq/L,尚未恢复到1980年水平,恢复滞后23年左右;土壤水硝酸根(NO₃^-)到2050年虽呈下降趋势但仍高于其阈值(443èq/L),地表水NO₃^-浓度已经低于其阈值(411èq/L),地表水NO³_-浓度得降低相对于穿透水滞后13年左右;盐基阳离子(钙,Ca²⁺)在土壤和地表水中浓度升高;土壤和地表水pH值和ANC均低于酸化指标阈值,酸化恢复存在滞后效应.当实施更加严格的排放控制政策,即SO₂至2030年降到2021年的80%,至2050年降到2021年的70%,NH₃、NO_x和Ca²⁺至2030年降到2021年的60%,至2050年降到2021年的40%,才可以使强酸性阴离子恢复到阈值以内,pH值持续上升,土壤和地表水ANC恢复到0èq/L以上.此外,未来全球温度上升对土壤酸化严重的亚热带森林土壤和地表水中主要强酸性阴离子和酸化指标的影响不显著.

Abstract

To predict the long-term response of soil and surface water chemistry after the reduction in acid deposition, a dynamic MAGIC model combined with long-term monitoring data was conducted on a subtropical forest in Tieshanping, Chongqing, Southwest China. Under the “actual emission reduction” scenario based on China's “14th Five-Year Plan” (where the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions remained at the 2020 level, and the nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and ammonia (NH₃) emissions were reduced by over 10% and 8%, respectively, by 2025), the simulation results indicated that sulfate (SO₄^2-) concentrations in soil water (S1and S2) and surface water (SW) initially increased, and stabilized after 2028 until 2050. The average SO₄^2- concentrations in S1, S2 and SW water from 2021 to 2050 were 1426, 1414, and 938èq/L, respectively, which were still above the 1980levels. The decline of SO₄^2- concentrations in surface water was delayed by approximately 23 years. Soil water nitrate (NO₃^-) concentrations showed a declining trend by 2050, but it remained above the threshold (443èq/L), whereas surface water NO₃^- concentrations had decreased below its threshold (411èq/L). The decline of NO₃^- concentrations in surface water was lagged approximately 13 years, compared to it in throughfall. Additionally, the concentrations of base cation (calcium, Ca²⁺) in both soil and surface water increased. The pH and Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) in soil and surface water remained below their acidification thresholds. The acidification recovery showed a lag effect. The strong acidic anions in soil and surface water will decrease below their thresholds, pH will increase, and ANC will increase above 0èq/L, when the stricter emission control policies were implemented, for example the SO₂ emissions decrease to 80% of 2021l evels by 2030 and 70% of 2021 levels by 2050, and the NH₃emissions, NO_x emissions, and Ca²⁺ deposition decrease to 60% of 2021 levels by 2030 and 40% of 2021 levels by 2050. Moreover, further global temperature increases showed insignificant impact on the major strong acidic anions and acidification indicators in the highly acidic soils and surface waters of the subtropical forest.

导出引用

周剑兴, 李秉珍, 韩怡蒙, 夏凡, 谢丹妮. MAGIC动态模型模拟预测我国亚热带森林土壤和地表水化学对氮硫沉降降低的响应[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(5): 2700-2712

ZHOU Jian-xing, LI Bing-zhen, HAN Yi-meng, XIA Fan, XIE Dan-ni. Simulation and prediction of subtropical forest soil and surface water chemistry responses to reduced nitrogen and sulfur deposition in China using the MAGIC dynamic model[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(5): 2700-2712

中图分类号： X142

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