基于改进输出系数模型的非点源氮磷负荷估算

李梦冰; 周丙娟; 胡可欣; 王金亮

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6) : 3321-3330.

环境生态

基于改进输出系数模型的非点源氮磷负荷估算

李梦冰, 周丙娟, 胡可欣, 王金亮

作者信息 +

Estimation of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus loads using an improved export coefficient modeling approach

LI Meng-bing, ZHOU Bing-juan, HU Ke-xin, WANG Jin-liang

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摘要

本文通过引进降雨和地形修正因子,构建改进输出系数模型,开展赣江流域非点源氮磷污染负荷估算和污染来源识别研究.将改进前后输出系数模型进行精度对比,并对氮磷负荷强度与监测氮磷浓度数据进行相关性分析.结果表明研究区非点源氮磷污染负荷总量和负荷强度均呈现上升趋势,2016~2020年TN、TP输出量分别增加15.99%和16.37%,负荷强度分别增加15.89%和16.85%,空间上呈现北高南低,局部集中的特点,下游污染风险更大;土地利用是氮污染主要来源,输出占比为51.65%,畜禽养殖对磷污染的贡献最大,输出占比为36.82%;改进后输出系数模型相对误差比改进前明显降低,年均氮磷浓度与氮磷负荷强度均呈现出显著相关性(P<0.05),模型改进后精度更高.运用改进的输出系数模型,能够更精确地评估流域非点源污染状况,识别主要污染源类型,并据此确定污染控制的关键区域,可为流域非点源污染控制与治理提供参考.

Abstract

This study developed an improved export coefficient model by integrating rainfall and topographic correction factors to estimate non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads and identify key pollution sources in the Ganjiang River Basin. The accuracy of the original and modified models was systematically compared, and correlation analysis was performed between nitrogen and phosphorus load intensity and monitored concentration data. The results demonstrated an increasing trend in both total pollution loads and load intensities from 2016 to 2020. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus exports increased by 15.99% and 16.37%, respectively, while corresponding load intensities rose by 15.89% and 16.85%. Spatially, the pollution distribution exhibited a characteristic north-high-south-low pattern with localized concentration, indicating higher contamination risks in downstream areas. Land use emerged as the primary source of nitrogen pollution, contributing 51.65% of total nitrogen exports, whereas livestock farming was identified as the dominant phosphorus source, accounting for 36.82% of total phosphorus outputs. The enhanced export coefficient model demonstrated significantly reduced relative errors compared to the original version. Statistical analysis revealed significant correlations (P<0.05) between annual average nitrogen or phosphorus concentrations and load intensities, confirming the improved model's superior accuracy. The refined model enables more precise assessment of watershed non-point source pollution, facilitates identification of major pollution sources, and supports targeted delineation of critical control zones, thereby providing valuable scientific support for non-point source pollution management and remediation strategies in river basins.

导出引用

李梦冰, 周丙娟, 胡可欣, 王金亮. 基于改进输出系数模型的非点源氮磷负荷估算[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(6): 3321-3330

LI Meng-bing, ZHOU Bing-juan, HU Ke-xin, WANG Jin-liang. Estimation of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus loads using an improved export coefficient modeling approach[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(6): 3321-3330

中图分类号： X52

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