人为源减排对长三角臭氧生成敏感性的影响

滕永跃; 金素雅; 郑佳乐; 张佩; 叶浩然; 安静宇; 田俊杰; 黄成; 姜建惠

PDF(2278 KB)

中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (7) : 3564-3572.

臭氧污染与控制

人为源减排对长三角臭氧生成敏感性的影响

滕永跃¹, 金素雅¹, 郑佳乐¹, 张佩¹, 叶浩然¹, 安静宇², 田俊杰², 黄成³, 姜建惠^1,4

作者信息 +

Effects of anthropogenic emission reduction on ozone formation sensitivity in the Yangtze River Delta.

TENG Yong-yue¹, JIN Su-ya¹, ZHENG Jia-le¹, ZHANG Pei¹, YE Hao-ran¹, AN Jing-yu², TIAN Jun-jie², HUANG Cheng³, JIANG Jian-hui^1,4

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

对基于空气质量模型CAMx的臭氧(O₃)生成敏感性判断指标(PH₂O₂/PHNO₃)进行优化,研究长三角地区O₃浓度以及O₃生成敏感性的时空格局;选择减排政策的关键时间节点2013、2017、2020和2030年,模拟并预测了不同排放情景下的O₃浓度以及O₃生成敏感性的变化.结果表明,长三角地区O₃浓度分布呈现北高南低的空间分布特征;O₃生成敏感性以安庆-南京-苏州-嘉兴为分界线,分界线以北地区以VOCs限制区为主,占据长三角总面积的43.3%,分界线以南为NO_x限制区为主,占总面积的45.3%,其余为过渡区域.在气象条件不变的前提下,随着前体物排放的持续降低,长三角地区日最大8h O₃平均浓度(MDA8)有所下降,并且区域敏感性逐渐向NO_x限制区转变.在2030年碳达峰情景下,长三角地区平均O₃浓度降低但上海等局部地区O₃出现上升;O₃生成机制持续向NO_x限制转变,NO_x限制区面积占比较2013年增长了30.2%,仅长江沿岸部分城市及交通要道仍保持VOCs限制.在排除气候变化因素影响的前提下,当前减排政策能够降低长三角地区O₃平均MDA8浓度,但处于VOCs限制主导的城市地区仍需要重视NO_x和VOCs的协同减排,避免局部地区出现O₃反升.

Abstract

This study investigated the spatiotemporal variations of ozone (O₃) pollution and O₃ formation sensitivity in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) with the air quality model CAMx and an optimized photochemical indicator (PH₂O₂/PHNO₃). The critical years of emission reduction strategies (2013, 2017, 2020, and 2030) were selected to simulate and predict changes in ozone concentration and formation sensitivity under different emission scenarios. The results revealed a north-south gradient in O₃ concentrations, with higher levels in northern areas and lower levels in southern areas. The ozone formation sensitivity regimes were divided by an Anqing-Nanjing-Suzhou-Jiaxing line. The northern aeras of the line were governed by a VOCs-limited regime (occupying 43.3% of the total area) and the southern areas were predominantly NO_x-limited (45.3%), with transitional zones covering the remaining area. Under fixed meteorological conditions, continuous reduction in anthropogenic emissions during 2013~2020led to a sustained decline in the daily maximum 8-hour average (MDA8) O₃ concentration, and a shift of the ozone formation regime from VOCs-limited to NO_x-limited. In 2030, O₃ levels in urban hotspots such as Shanghai are likely to increase, despite an overall reduction in regional O₃ levels. The shift towards the NO_x-limited region will continue, increasing by 30.2% from 2013 levels. Only specific cities along the Yangtze River and areas with heavy traffic emissions will remain VOCs-limited. In summary, excluding the impact of climate change, the emission mitigation strategies can effectively decrease the ozone levels in the YRD. Meanwhile it is still necessary to coordinate the reduction rates of NO_x and VOCs in VOCs-limited cities to prevent increases in O₃ levels.

导出引用

滕永跃, 金素雅, 郑佳乐, 张佩, 叶浩然, 安静宇, 田俊杰, 黄成, 姜建惠. 人为源减排对长三角臭氧生成敏感性的影响[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(7): 3564-3572

TENG Yong-yue, JIN Su-ya, ZHENG Jia-le, ZHANG Pei, YE Hao-ran, AN Jing-yu, TIAN Jun-jie, HUANG Cheng, JIANG Jian-hui. Effects of anthropogenic emission reduction on ozone formation sensitivity in the Yangtze River Delta.[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(7): 3564-3572

中图分类号： X511

参考文献

[1] Lu X, Zhang L, Wang X, et al. Rapid increases in warm-season surface ozone and resulting health impact in China since 2013 [J]. Environmental Science & Technology Letters, 2020,7(4):240-247.
[2] Liu Y, Wang T. Worsening urban ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2017 – Part 2: The effects of emission changes and implications for multi-pollutant control [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020, 20(11):6323-6337.
[3] Wang W, Li X, Cheng Y, et al. Ozone pollution mitigation strategy informed by long-term trends of atmospheric oxidation capacity [J]. Nature Geoscience, 2024,17(1):20-25.
[4] 刘建,吴兑,范绍佳,等.前体物与气象因子对珠江三角洲臭氧污染的影响 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2017,37(3):813-820. Liu J, Wu D, Fan S J, et al. Impacts of precursors and meteorological factors on ozone pollution in Pearl River Delta [J]. China Environmental Science, 2017,37(3):813-820.
[5] 唐孝炎,张远航,邵敏.大气环境化学 [M]. (第二版).北京:高等教育出版社, 2006. Tang X Y, Zhang Y H, Shao M, et al. Atmospheric environmental chemistry [M]. (Second Edition). Beijing: China Higher Education Press, 2006.
[6] Wang P, Chen Y, Hu J, et al. Attribution of tropospheric ozone to NO_x and VOC emissions: considering ozone formation in the transition regime [J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2019,53(3):1404-1412.
[7] Jin X, Holloway T. Spatial and temporal variability of ozone sensitivity over China observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015, 120(14):7229-7246.
[8] Guo J, Zhang X, Gao Y, et al. Evolution of ozone pollution in China: what track will it follow? [J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2023,57(1):109-117.
[9] Wang W, Van Der A R, Ding J, et al. Spatial and temporal changes of the ozone sensitivity in China based on satellite and ground-based observations [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2021,21(9): 7253-7269.
[10] Liu Z, Doherty R M, Wild O, et al. Tropospheric ozone changes and ozone sensitivity from the present day to the future under shared socio-economic pathways [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022,22(2):1209-1227.
[11] Wang Y, Liao H, Chen H, et al. Future projection of mortality from exposure to PM_2.5and O₃under the carbon neutral pathway: roles of changing emissions and population aging [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2023,50(15):e2023GL104838.
[12] Du Y, Yuan Z, Yang L, et al. Evolution of ozone-precursor sensitivity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of China under the backdrop of climate change [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2024,331:120596.
[13] 张新宇,王晓琦,王传达,等.保定市夏季臭氧生成敏感性及前体物减排方案 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2023,43(6):2703-2713. Zhang X Y, Wang X Q, Wang C D, et al. Ozone sensitivity and precursor emission reduction scheme in Baoding City in summer [J]. Chinese Environmental Science, 2023,43(6):2703-2713.
[14] 张鸿宇,王媛,卢亚灵,等.我国臭氧污染控制分区及其控制类型识别 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2021,41(9):4051-4059. Zhang H Y, Wang Y, Lu Y L, et al. Identification of ozone pollution control zones and types in China [J]. Chinese Environmental Science, 2021,41(9):4051-4059.
[15] 钟博闻,周俊,王燕,等.我国臭氧生成敏感性研究进展 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2024,44(12):1-18. Zhong B W, Zhou J, Wang Y, et al. Review of ozone formation sensitivity in China [J]. Chinese Environmental Science, 2024,44(12): 6522-6537.
[16] Sillman S, He D, Pippin M R, et al. Model correlations for ozone, reactive nitrogen, and peroxides for Nashville in comparison with measurements: Implications for O₃-NO_x-hydrocarbon chemistry [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 1998,103(D17): 22629-22644.
[17] Liang J, Jackson B, Kaduwela A. Evaluation of the ability of indicator species ratios to determine the sensitivity of ozone to reductions in emissions of volatile organic compounds and oxides of nitrogen in northern California [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006,40(27):5156-5166.
[18] 蒲东川,王大康,朱雷,等.基于OLI和TROPOMI卫星数据的北京市臭氧前体物研究 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2024,44(7):3592-3600. Pu D C, Wang D K, Zhu X, et al. Study on ozone precursors in Beijing based on OLI and TROPOMI satellite data [J]. China Environmental Science, 2024,44(7):3592-3600.
[19] Du X, Tang W, Cheng M, et al. Modeling of spatial and temporal variations of ozone-NO_x-VOC sensitivity based on photochemical indicators in China [J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2022,114: 454-464.
[20] Wang X, Zhang Y, Hu Y, et al. Decoupled direct sensitivity analysis of regional ozone pollution over the Pearl River Delta during the PRIDE-PRD2004campaign [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2011,45(28):4941-4949.
[21] Ye L, Wang X, Fan S, et al. Photochemical indicators of ozone sensitivity: application in the Pearl River Delta, China [J]. Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering, 2016,10(6):15.
[22] Li X, Qin M, Li L, et al. Examining the implications of photochemical indicators for O₃–NO_x–VOC sensitivity and control strategies: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022,22(22):14799-14811.
[23] 米艺华,杜惠云,李杰,等.我国重点地区臭氧变化特征及与气象要素的关系 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2024,44(4):1894-1904. Mi Y H, Du H Y, Li J, et al. Ozone pollution characteristics and its relationship with meteorological factors of key regions in China [J]. Chinese Environmental Science, 2024,44(4):1894-1904.
[24] 周明卫,康平,汪可可,等.2016~2018年中国城市臭氧浓度时空聚集变化规律 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2020,40(5):1963-1974. Zhou M W, Kang P, Wang K K, et al. The spatio-temporal aggregation pattern of ozone concentration in China from 2016 to 2018 [J]. Chinese Environmental Science, 2020,40(5):1963-1974.
[25] Fang H, Wang W, Wang R, et al. Ozone and its precursors at an urban site in the Yangtze River Delta since clean air action plan phase II in China [J]. Environmental Pollution, 2024,347:123769.
[26] Shen L, Wang H, Zhu B, et al. Impact of urbanization on air quality in the Yangtze River Delta during the COVID-19lockdown in China [J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021,296:126561.
[27] 周德荣,刘祎,高健,等.中国东部地区典型臭氧污染过程防控敏感性及减排情景研究 [J]. 大气科学学报, 2023,46(5):667-678. Zhou D R, Liu Y, Gao J, et al. Assessment of ozone sensitivity and emission reduction scenarios in typical pollution processes in eastern China [J]. Transactions Atmospheric Sciences, 46(5):667-678.
[28] An J, Huang Y, Huang C, et al. Emission inventory of air pollutants and chemical speciation for specific anthropogenic sources based on local measurements in the Yangtze River Delta region, China [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2021,21(3):2003-2025.
[29] 周广强,瞿元昊,余钟奇.长江三角洲城市臭氧数值预报与释用 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2021,41(1):28-36. Zhou G Q, Qu Y H, Yu Z Q. Numerical forecast and improvement of ozone over YRD cities [J]. Chinese Environmental Science, 2021,41 (1):28-36.
[30] Zheng B, Tong D, Li M, et al. Trends in China’s anthropogenic emissions since 2010as the consequence of clean air actions [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2018,18(19):14095-14111.
[31] Tong D, Cheng J, Liu Y, et al. Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015~2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020,20(9):5729-5757.
[32] Cheng J, Tong D, Liu Y, et al. A synergistic approach to air pollution control and carbon neutrality in China can avoid millions of premature deaths annually by 2060 [J]. One Earth, 2023,6(8):978-989.
[33] Emery C, Tai E. Enhanced meteorological modeling and performance evaluation for two Texas ozone episodes [Z]. 2001.
[34] Wang P, Guo H, Hu J, et al. Responses of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations to changes of meteorology and emissions in China [J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2019,662:297-306.
[35] Lang J, Liang X, Li S, et al. Understanding the impact of vehicular emissions on air pollution from the perspective of regional transport: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China [J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2021,785:147304.
[36] Tan J, Zhang Y, Ma W, et al. Impact of spatial resolution on air quality simulation: A case study in a highly industrialized area in Shanghai, China [J]. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2015,6(2):322-333.
[37] Zhao J, Lv Z, Qi L, et al. Comprehensive assessment for the impacts of S/IVOC emissions from mobile sources on SOA formation in China [J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2022,56(23):16695-16706.
[38] Hodzic A, Jimenez J L, Madronich S, et al. Modeling organic aerosols in a megacity: potential contribution of semi-volatile and intermediate volatility primary organic compounds to secondary organic aerosol formation [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2010,10(12):5491-5514.
[39] Boylan J W, Russell A G. PM and light extinction model performance metrics, goals, and criteria for three-dimensional air quality models [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006,40(26):4946-4959.
[40] 王君悦,刘朝顺.基于WRF-Chem的长三角地区PM_2.5和O₃污染协同控制研究 [J]. 环境科学学报, 2022,42(7):32-42. Wang J Y, Liu C S. Study on the synergistic control of PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region based on WRF-Chem model [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2022,42(7):32-42.
[41] Tao W, Liu J, Ban-Weiss G A, et al. Effects of urban land expansion on the regional meteorology and air quality of eastern China [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015,15(15):8597-8614.
[42] 牟显金赞,侯雪伟,朱小东.长三角地区近地层臭氧高值特征及其成因分析 [J]. 环境化学, 2024,44(4):1-14. Mou X J Z, Hou X W, Zhu X D. Characteristics and cause analysis of surface high ozone in the Yangtze River Delta [J]. Environmental Chemistry, 2024,44(4):1-44.
[43] 易睿,王亚林,张殷俊,等.长江三角洲地区城市臭氧污染特征与影响因素分析 [J]. 环境科学学报, 2015,35(8):2370-2377. Yi R, Wang Y L, Zhang Y J, et al. Pollution characteristics and influence factors of ozone in Yangtze River Delta [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2015,35(8):2370-2377.
[44] Zhu S, Ma J, Wang S, et al. Shifts of formation regimes and increases of atmospheric oxidation led to ozone increase in north China plain and Yangtze River Delta from 2016 to 2019 [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2023,128(13):e2022JD038373.
[45] Ren J, Guo F, Xie S. Diagnosing ozone–NO_x–VOC sensitivity and revealing causes of ozone increases in China based on 2013~2021 satellite retrievals [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022,22 (22):15035-15047.
[46] Wang Q, Li Y, Zhong F, et al. Ground ozone rise during the 2022Shanghai lockdown caused by the unfavorable emission reduction ratio of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2024:120851.