关中平原城市群碳收支时空分异特征及碳平衡驱动因素

杨屹; 苏越

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (7) : 4034-4051.

碳排放控制

关中平原城市群碳收支时空分异特征及碳平衡驱动因素

杨屹, 苏越

作者信息 +

Spatial and temporal variability of carbon budget in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and the driving factors of carbon balance.

YANG Yi, SU Yue

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

以关中平原城市群为研究样本,在分析2007~2022年碳排放量和碳汇量时空分异特征的基础上,探讨了城市群内各城市的碳平衡类型,采用碳生态承载系数、标准差椭圆和重心迁移模型描述了碳平衡能力时空动态变化的特点,并运用时空地理加权模型探讨了驱动因素的时空异质性.结果显示:碳排放量变化呈波动增加的特点,由2007年的12881.57万t增加至2022年的38570.76万t,年均增长率为7.59%.碳汇量变化幅度较小,由2007年的1885.78万t增加至2022年的2176.11万t,年均增长率为0.10%.耕地和林地分别贡献了碳汇量的82.56%和17.01%,是影响碳汇水平的主要土地类型.碳平衡能力空间差异明显,呈西北高、东部低的特征,标准差椭圆呈西北-东南的分布格局,重心整体向东迁移.碳平衡能力的驱动因素存在显著差异,能源强度、产业结构、地区生产总值、城镇化水平、人口密度等社会经济因素的影响最为显著,降水和气温等气候条件的影响次之,而环境规制、绿色创新等治理因素的影响并不显著.研究强调从生产减碳和生态固碳的视角制定差异化策略.

Abstract

This study investigated the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration from 2007 to 2022. In addition, it examined the types of carbon balance across cities within this urban agglomeration. The characteristics of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the carbon balance capacity were described using the ecological support coefficient of carbon emissions, the standard deviation ellipse, and the center of the gravity migration model. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the driving factors was explored using a spatial and temporal geographic weighting model. The findings were as follows. Carbon emissions fluctuated and increased from 128,815,700 tons in 2007 to 385,707,600 tons in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 7.59%. The change in the carbon sink was smaller, increasing from 18,857,800 tons in 2007 to 21,761,100 tons in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 0.10%. Cultivated land and forestland accounted for 82.56% and 17.01%, respectively, of the carbon sink, which was the main land type affecting the carbon sink level. The spatial difference in the carbon balance capacity was obvious, characterized by high values in the northwest and low values in the east. The standard deviation ellipse revealed a northwest southeast distribution pattern, with the center of gravity shifting eastward. There were significant differences in the driving factors of the carbon balance capacity. The influence of socioeconomic factors such as energy intensity, industrial structure, gross regional product, urbanization level and population density were the most significant, followed by the influence of climatic conditions such as precipitation and temperature. The influence of governance factors such as environmental regulation and green innovation were not significant. This study underscored the importance of developing differentiated strategies from the perspectives of carbon reduction in production and carbon sequestration in ecology.

导出引用

杨屹, 苏越. 关中平原城市群碳收支时空分异特征及碳平衡驱动因素[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(7): 4034-4051

YANG Yi, SU Yue. Spatial and temporal variability of carbon budget in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and the driving factors of carbon balance.[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(7): 4034-4051

中图分类号： X321

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