油水混合层CO2地质封存与利用数值模拟及参数全局敏感性分析

张雨佳; 杨蕴; 龚绪龙; 朱慧星; 崔龙玉; 吴公益; 宋健; 朱淳; 吴吉春

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (8) : 4667-4676.

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油水混合层CO₂地质封存与利用数值模拟及参数全局敏感性分析

张雨佳¹, 杨蕴¹, 龚绪龙², 朱慧星³, 崔龙玉², 吴公益⁴, 宋健¹, 朱淳¹, 吴吉春⁵

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Numerical simulation and parameter global sensitivity analysis of CO₂& geological storage and utilization in oil-water mixed layers

ZHANG Yu-jia¹, YANG Yun¹, GONG Xu-long², ZHU Hui-xing³, CUI Long-yu², WU Gong-yi⁴, SONG Jian¹, ZHU Chun¹, WU Ji-chun⁵

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摘要

选择苏北某油田为研究对象,构建了CO₂驱油与封存多相流反应运移模型CO₂-DSMRT刻画超临界态/气相、溶水相、溶油相和矿物相CO₂在百年尺度上的转化和归趋,利用Sobol方法识别了影响模型预测结果的敏感参数.进一步采用PSO-LSSVM方法建立替代模型以表征敏感参数输入和CO₂多相态输出结果之间的映射关系,并开展蒙特卡洛随机模拟量化模型的不确定性.结果表明,CO₂注入油水混合层100a后,气相CO₂占比61.2%,溶油相CO₂占比17.8%,溶水相CO₂占比11.2%,矿物相CO₂占比9.8%,CO₂-DSMRT模型对开采油量最敏感的参数为渗透率,对储层CO₂封存量最敏感的参数为孔隙度.不同置信水平下CO₂封存量和产油量的产投比差异明显,P10情境适用于封存优先策略,P50情境下可实现封存与经济效益平衡,P90情境下更适合增产优化策略.

Abstract

In this paper, an oil field in Northern Jiangsu Province is selected as the research object, and a multiphase flow reaction migration model CO₂-DSMRT for CO₂ displacement and storage is constructed to describe the transformation and fate of supercritical state/gas phase, dissolved water phase, dissolved oil phase and mineral phase CO₂ on a century scale. The sensitive parameters affecting the prediction results of the model are identified by Sobol method. Furthermore, PSO-LSSVM method was used to establish an alternative model to characterize the mapping relationship between sensitive parameter input and CO₂ multiphase output results, and Monte Carlo stochastic simulation was carried out to quantify the uncertainty of the model. The results show that after 100 years of CO₂ injection into the oil-water mixed layer, the gas phase CO₂ accounts for 61.2%, the oil-soluble phase CO₂ accounts for 17.8%, the water-soluble phase CO₂ accounts for 11.2%, and the mineral phase CO₂ accounts for 9.8%. The most sensitive parameter of co₂-dsmrt model to oil production is permeability, and the most sensitive parameter to reservoir CO₂ storage is porosity. The production investment ratio of CO₂ storage capacity and oil production under different confidence levels is significantly different. P10scenario is suitable for storage priority strategy, P50 scenario can achieve the balance between storage and economic benefits, and P90 scenario is more suitable for production optimization strategy.

导出引用

张雨佳, 杨蕴, 龚绪龙, 朱慧星, 崔龙玉, 吴公益, 宋健, 朱淳, 吴吉春. 油水混合层CO₂地质封存与利用数值模拟及参数全局敏感性分析[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(8): 4667-4676

ZHANG Yu-jia, YANG Yun, GONG Xu-long, ZHU Hui-xing, CUI Long-yu, WU Gong-yi, SONG Jian, ZHU Chun, WU Ji-chun. Numerical simulation and parameter global sensitivity analysis of CO₂& geological storage and utilization in oil-water mixed layers[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(8): 4667-4676

中图分类号： X144

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