以产业转型升级示范区设立为准自然实验,基于2010~2020年我国261个地级及以上城市面板数据,采用双重差分法研究了产业转型升级示范区政策对城市空气质量的影响及其作用机制.研究发现:在样本期内,产业转型升级示范区政策使得示范区城市PM2.5浓度平均下降了3.238µg/m3,约占政策前示范区城市PM2.5浓度均值的7.711%,显著改善了示范区城市的空气质量.这一结论在经过平行趋势检验､安慰剂检验,PSM-DID方法等稳健性检验后仍然成立.机制分析表明,示范区政策主要是通过推动示范区城市产业结构优化､加强环境规制改善了城市空气质量.异质性分析发现,与资源型城市､东部地区和北方地区相比,示范区政策对城市空气质量的改善效应在老工业城市和复合型城市､中西部地区和南方地区中更为显著.调节效应分析发现,中国式分权在示范区建设和空气质量改善二者间存在调节效应:相比于集群式示范区和在年度考核中仅获得合格评价的示范区,单一式示范区和获得优秀和良好评价的示范区对空气质量的改善作用可能更加显著.
Abstract
Based on the simple data of 261 cities from 2010 to 2020, the impact and mechanism of the policy of industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration zones on urban air quality were studied using the difference in differences method. It was found that the policy of industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration zones significantly improved the air quality of the demonstration zone cities: during the sample period, the concentration of PM2.5 in the demonstration zone cities was reduced by an average of 3.238µg/m3, which accounted for approximately 7.711% of the average PM2.5 concentration in the demonstration zone cities before the policy was implemented. This conclusion remained valid after robustness tests such as parallel trend testing, placebo testing, and the PSM-DID method. This conclusion remained valid after robustness tests such as parallel trend testing, placebo testing, and the PSM-DID method. Mechanism analysis revealed that the policy of demonstration zones mainly improved urban air quality by promoting the optimization of urban industrial structure and strengthening environmental regulations. Heterogeneity analysis found that, compared with resource-based cities, eastern and northern regions, the improvement effect of demonstration zone policies on urban air quality was more significant in old industrial cities, composite cities, central and western regions, and southern regions. The moderation effect analysis revealed that Chinese-style Decentralization had a moderating effect between the construction of demonstration zones and the improvement of air quality: compared with cluster-style demonstration zones and those that only received a qualified evaluation in the annual assessment, single-style demonstration zones and those that received excellent and good evaluations might have a more significant effect on air quality improvement.
关键词
产业转型升级示范区 /
空气质量 /
老工业城市 /
资源型城市 /
双重差分模型
Key words
industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration zone /
air quality /
old industrial city /
resource-based city /
difference-in-differences method
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基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(24&ZD027);国家社科基金项目(24SGC030)
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