2018~2023年新疆天山北坡主要城市近地面臭氧的长期变化及其影响因素

郑坤; 耿春梅; 邓婉月; 赵雪艳; 吴丽萍; 谷超; 杨文

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (9) : 4749-4761.

臭氧污染与控制

2018~2023年新疆天山北坡主要城市近地面臭氧的长期变化及其影响因素

郑坤^1,2, 耿春梅¹, 邓婉月³, 赵雪艳¹, 吴丽萍², 谷超³, 杨文¹

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The long-term variation and influencing factors of near-surface ozone in major cities in the northern slope area of Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang during 2018~2023

ZHENG Kun^1,2, GENG Chun-mei¹, DENG Wan-yue³, ZHAO Xue-yan¹, WU Li-ping², GU Chao³, YANG Wen¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

通过逐步多元线性回归(MLR)模型研究了2018~2023年新疆天山北坡主要城市(乌鲁木齐市、昌吉市、石河子市、五家渠市)人为排放与气象因素对臭氧(O₃)变化的相对贡献,并基于OMI卫星数据(HCHO和NO₂对流层柱浓度)与地面观测数据(O₃和NO₂)确定了天山北坡地区的FNR(ratio of the tropospheric columns of formaldehyde to nitrogen dioxide)阈值,揭示了区域性差异、季节性特征和前体物敏感性变化规律.结果表明,天山北坡地区O₃整体呈波动上升趋势,年均值为86.97μg/m³,其中暖季(107.63μg/m³)高于冷季(66.31μg/m³),2020年因疫情导致排放减少,O₃浓度降至最低(86.72μg/m³).各城市年增长速率差异明显,昌吉市为3.87μg/(m³·a),石河子市为1.51μg/(m³·a).气象因素对O₃浓度变化具有显著影响,其中温度和湿度为关键因素.乌鲁木齐市和五家渠市的气象因素贡献较高(分别为50%和60%),而昌吉市和石河子市的贡献较低(分别为29%和44%).NO₂柱浓度呈现下降趋势(年下降速率为0.22×10¹⁵molec/(cm²·a)),而HCHO柱浓度保持相对稳定,表明VOCs排放可能有所增加.FNR值分析结果表明,O₃生成敏感性(OFS)阈值为:FNR < 1.75时,臭氧生成受VOCs控制;FNR > 3.67时,O₃生成受NO_x控制;1.75 < FNR < 3.67为过渡状态.暖季(4~9月),O₃光化学产生的敏感性主要受NO_x控制.本研究揭示了天山北坡地区O₃生成的时空变化特征和前体物敏感性规律,为制定更加精准的O₃污染控制策略提供了科学依据.

Abstract

This study investigates the relative contributions of anthropogenic and meteorological factors to ozone (O₃) variations in major cities on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (Urumqi, Changji, Shihezi, Wujiaqu) from 2018 to 2023 using a stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) model. Based on OMI satellite data (HCHO and NO₂ tropospheric column concentrations) and ground-based observation data (O₃ and NO₂), the fractional nucleation rate (FNR) threshold for the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains was determined. The study highlights regional differences, seasonal patterns, and variations in the sensitivity of precursor substances. The results indicate that O₃ on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains generally exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with an annual average concentration of 86.97μg/m³, and the O₃ concentration in the warm season (107.63μg/m³) was higher than that in the cold season (66.31μg/m³). The O₃ concentration decreased to its lowest level (86.71μg/m³) in 2020 attributed to the decreased emissions resulting from the pandemic. The annual growth rates varied significantly among the cities, with Changji at 3.87μg/(m³·a) and Shihezi at 1.51μg/(m³·a). Meteorological factors have a significant impact on O₃ concentration variations, with temperature and humidity as key factors. The contribution rates of meteorological factors in Urumqi and Wujiaqu were higher (50% and 60%, respectively), while those in Changji and Shihezi were lower (29% and 44%, respectively). The NO₂ column concentration showed a downward trend (annual decrease rate of 0.22 × 10¹⁵ molec/(cm²·a)), while the HCHO column concentration remained relatively stable, indicating that VOCs emissions may have increased. FNR analysis indicates that the ozone formation sensitivity (OFS) threshold was as follows: when FNR < 1.75, ozone formation was controlled by VOCs; when FNR > 3.67, ozone formation was controlled by NO_x; and when 1.75 < FNR < 3.67, it is in a transitional state. During the warm season (April to September), the sensitivity of O₃ photochemical production was mainly controlled by NO_x. This study reveals the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of O₃ formation and precursor sensitivities in the northern slope area of the Tianshan Mountains, providing scientific guidance for the development of more precise O₃ pollution control strategies.

导出引用

郑坤, 耿春梅, 邓婉月, 赵雪艳, 吴丽萍, 谷超, 杨文. 2018~2023年新疆天山北坡主要城市近地面臭氧的长期变化及其影响因素[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(9): 4749-4761

ZHENG Kun, GENG Chun-mei, DENG Wan-yue, ZHAO Xue-yan, WU Li-ping, GU Chao, YANG Wen. The long-term variation and influencing factors of near-surface ozone in major cities in the northern slope area of Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang during 2018~2023[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(9): 4749-4761

中图分类号： X511

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