大气碳反演在城市碳排放监测评估中的作用

曹无敌; 张思; 吴林; 孙康; 任远哲; 周兴军; 孙凤娟; 朱明明; 姚波; 王自发; 田永莉

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (9) : 5277-5286.

碳排放控制

大气碳反演在城市碳排放监测评估中的作用

曹无敌^1,2, 张思^1,2, 吴林¹, 孙康³, 任远哲⁴, 周兴军⁵, 孙凤娟⁶, 朱明明¹, 姚波⁷, 王自发^1,2,8, 田永莉⁵

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Atmospheric carbon inversion for monitoring and assessing urban carbon dioxide emissions

CAO Wu-di^1,2, ZHANG Si^1,2, WU Lin¹, SUN Kang³, REN Yuan-zhe⁴, ZHOU Xing-jun⁵, SUN Feng-juan⁶, ZHU Ming-ming¹, YAO Bo⁷, WANG Zi-fa^1,2,8, TIAN Yong-li⁵

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摘要

城市二氧化碳排放量的大气反演估算是城市碳监测评估的核心方法之一,其性能决定评估的准确性和有效性,与评估能否满足城市碳达峰碳中和管理需求密切相关.大气碳反演性能涉及监测网络、排放清单、大气传输、反演算法等诸多因素.当前国内外城市大气碳反演工作已经获得阶段性成果,但对反演性能及其在“双碳”管理中所能发挥的作用缺乏系统性梳理总结.本文通过梳理城市大气碳反演现状与性能,阐明提升反演性能需综合优化碳监测网络布设、先验清单质量和传输模式精度等关键环节.高性能反演系统不仅能够实现城市碳排放量的高时效精准核算,还可识别城市短期碳排放波动,为城市碳排放管理与政策评估提供关键支撑.进一步探讨当前我国城市大气碳反演性能提升的难点和可能的解决思路,以期为我国碳达峰碳中和目标实现提供大气环境监测支撑.

Abstract

Atmospheric inversion is a key method to estimate urban carbon dioxide emissions for monitoring and assessment purpose. The inversion skills determine not only the assessment accuracy and efficiency, but also whether they can fulfill the demands of carbon managements for the cities to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality (dual carbon pledge). However, despite the recent advances in urban carbon inversions, it is still not well examined in depth and details the current status of the inversion skills and their roles in urban dual carbon managements, taking into account multiple factors including monitoring networks, emission inventories, atmospheric transport and inversion methods. Here, we review the advances of urban carbon inversions and examine inversion performance, highlighting that the improvement of the inversion performance requires coordinated optimization of monitoring networks, prior inventories, and transport models. High-performance inversion systems can provide timely and accurate estimates of urban emissions and identify short-term emission variations, supporting policy assessment and carbon management at urban scale. We further discuss the challenges and possible solutions for improving inversion performance in several Chinese cities, with the aim of providing atmospheric environmental monitoring support for these cities to achieve dual carbon targets.

导出引用

曹无敌, 张思, 吴林, 孙康, 任远哲, 周兴军, 孙凤娟, 朱明明, 姚波, 王自发, 田永莉. 大气碳反演在城市碳排放监测评估中的作用[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(9): 5277-5286

CAO Wu-di, ZHANG Si, WU Lin, SUN Kang, REN Yuan-zhe, ZHOU Xing-jun, SUN Feng-juan, ZHU Ming-ming, YAO Bo, WANG Zi-fa, TIAN Yong-li. Atmospheric carbon inversion for monitoring and assessing urban carbon dioxide emissions[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(9): 5277-5286

中图分类号： X8 X51

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