中国人均碳不平等演进趋势及驱动因素研究——基于结构特征、技术进步与效率优化的多维分析

程继鑫; 陈晓红; 夏春雷; 刘堇

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中国环境科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1) : 450-462.

碳排放控制

中国人均碳不平等演进趋势及驱动因素研究——基于结构特征、技术进步与效率优化的多维分析

程继鑫¹, 陈晓红^1,2, 夏春雷¹, 刘堇³

作者信息 +

The evolution trend and driving factors of per capita carbon inequality in china: A multidimensional analysis based on structural characteristics, technological progress, and efficiency optimization

CHENG Ji-xin¹, CHEN Xiao-hong^1,2, XIA Chun-lei¹, LIU Jin³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

通过整合并扩展对数平均迪氏指数与生产分解分析方法构建了一个探究区域碳不平等的综合评估体系,并基于2006~2019年中国273个城市的面板数据,从结构特征、技术变动与效率优化的视角分析了中国人均碳排放不平等程度的动态演化趋势和驱动因素.研究发现:(1)中国人均碳排放存在着明显的不平等特征,碳不平等指数先从2006年的15.18下降至2008年的14.51,后波动上升至2019年的22.59.(2)潜在碳排放强度和区域经济结构的变化是中国整体碳不平等指数上升的主要驱动因素,而区域经济水平的发展、生产技术效率的提升以及城市间生产技术差距的缩小则有效降低了碳不平等水平,但碳减排技术暂未起到缓解人均碳排放不平等的作用.(3)从动态层面看,潜在碳排放强度的波动对碳不平等指数变化的影响最大,生产技术水平的改进和生产效率的提升有效抑制了碳不平等指数的上升,缓解了碳不平等特征.(4)分区域分析发现,南部沿海地区碳不平等水平最高,而西北地区人均碳排放不平等程度最低,各区域的人均碳不平等驱动力因素作用方向与强度存在差异.

Abstract

This study constructs a comprehensive framework for assessing regional carbon inequality by integrating and extending the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) with production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA). Based on panel data from 273 Chinese cities (2006~2019), we examine the dynamic evolution and drivers of per capita carbon emission inequality from structural, technological, and efficiency perspectives. Results indicate significant carbon inequality in China, with the inequality index first decreasing from 15.18 (2006) to 14.51 (2008) before fluctuating upward to 22.59 (2019). Rising potential carbon intensity and shifts in regional economic structure were the main drivers of increased inequality, while regional economic growth, production efficiency improvements, and narrowing inter-city technology gaps helped mitigate it—though carbon reduction technologies showed no significant equalizing effect. Dynamic analysis reveals that potential carbon intensity fluctuations had the strongest impact on inequality changes, while technological progress and efficiency gains effectively curbed its rise. Regionally, the southern coast exhibited the highest carbon inequality, while the northwest had the lowest, with drivers varying in direction and intensity across regions.

导出引用

程继鑫, 陈晓红, 夏春雷, 刘堇. 中国人均碳不平等演进趋势及驱动因素研究——基于结构特征、技术进步与效率优化的多维分析[J]. 中国环境科学. 2026, 46(1): 450-462

CHENG Ji-xin, CHEN Xiao-hong, XIA Chun-lei, LIU Jin. The evolution trend and driving factors of per capita carbon inequality in china: A multidimensional analysis based on structural characteristics, technological progress, and efficiency optimization[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(1): 450-462

中图分类号： X196

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