长江经济带城市水-能-碳耦合协调时空演化及影响因素

蒋艺璇; 陈芷萱; 石磊

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中国环境科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1) : 525-538.

环境影响评价与管理

长江经济带城市水-能-碳耦合协调时空演化及影响因素

蒋艺璇, 陈芷萱, 石磊

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Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of water-energy-carbon coupling coordination in cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

JIANG Yi-xuan, CHEN Zhi-xuan, SHI Lei

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摘要

水、能、碳是社会经济发展中的关键资源环境要素,探究水-能-碳的耦合协调关系、促进其协调发展对于推动区域绿色高质量发展具有重要意义.以长江经济带95个城市为研究对象,从总量和强度双控视角构建水-能-碳评价指标,运用耦合协调度模型测算2006~2019年长江经济带各城市水-能-碳耦合协调度,并采用空间杜宾模型识别促进耦合协调的关键影响因素.研究发现:长江经济带水-能-碳、水-能、水-碳、能-碳四类耦合协调度数值在0.6724~0.9987区间范围内变化,呈现初级、中级、良好和优质协调四种等级,中位数和均值呈上升趋势,存在明显改善,自2014年起,每年均有超过75%的城市达到优质协调等级.四类耦合协调度均呈现正向空间聚集,除能-碳外其他三类优质协调等级城市由零散分布逐步发展为连片式分布格局.四类耦合协调度均存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,本地耦合协调度的提高会对空间关联城市的耦合协调度产生积极影响.经济发展水平、环境规制、技术创新、NDVI对本地耦合协调度的提升有显著促进作用,而固定资产投资则产生抑制作用.同时经济发展水平和产业结构升级对空间关联城市的耦合协调度分别存在正向和负向的空间溢出效应,环境规制和技术创新对邻近城市的负向空间溢出相比经济联系城市更加显著.

Abstract

Water, energy, and carbon are critical resource and environmental elements that underpin socio-economic development. Exploring the coupling coordination among water-energy-carbon (WEC) and promoting their synergistic development are essential for advancing regional green and high-quality growth. Taking 95 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the study area, WEC evaluation indicators were constructed from the dual-control perspective of total amount and intensity. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) model was applied to measure the CCD of WEC from 2006 to 2019, and the spatial durbin model was employed to identify the key influencing factors. The results showed that the CCD of WEC, water-energy, water-carbon, and energy-carbon in the YREB ranged from 0.6724 to 0.9987, and were classified into four levels: primary, intermediate, good, and quality coordination, with the median and mean showing an overall upward trend and notable improvement. Since 2014, more than 75% of the cities had reached the quality coordination level each year. All four categories of CCD exhibited positive spatial clustering, with cities achieving quality coordination in the other three categories evolving from scattered to contiguous distribution patterns, while energy-carbon remained widely distributed. Significant positive spatial spillover effects were detected for all four categories, indicating that improvements in local coupling coordination positively impacted that of spatially connected cities. Economic development level, environmental regulation, technological innovation, and NDVI significantly promoted local CCD, whereas fixed asset investment exerted a suppressing effect. Furthermore, economic development level and industrial structure upgrading showed positive and negative spatial spillover effects on spatially connected cities, respectively, while the negative spillovers of environmental regulation and technological innovation were more pronounced among geographically adjacent cities compared to economically linked cities.

导出引用

蒋艺璇, 陈芷萱, 石磊. 长江经济带城市水-能-碳耦合协调时空演化及影响因素[J]. 中国环境科学. 2026, 46(1): 525-538

JIANG Yi-xuan, CHEN Zhi-xuan, SHI Lei. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of water-energy-carbon coupling coordination in cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(1): 525-538

中图分类号： X703.5

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