京津冀水泥行业PM2.5技术减排及健康影响评价

宗文婧; 杨须艳; 张笛; 张岳玲

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中国环境科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1) : 568-578.

环境影响评价与管理

京津冀水泥行业PM_2.5技术减排及健康影响评价

宗文婧, 杨须艳, 张笛, 张岳玲

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PM_2.5 technological emission reduction from the cement industry and associated evaluation health impacts in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

ZONG Wen-jing, YANG Xu-yan, ZHANG Di, ZHANG Yue-ling

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摘要

以京津冀地区68家全流程水泥企业2020年度排放清单为基础,结合37项减排技术构建三种实施情景,选取CALPUFF模型、IER和GEMM两种暴露风险模型以及三种经济评估手段(生命统计价值法(VSL)、年龄调整生命统计价值法(A_VSL)、修正劳动力资本损失法(AHC)),针对京津冀地区水泥行业PM_2.5排放进行了减排潜力、浓度响应及健康影响评价.结果表明,技术减排情景S1和S2的PM_2.5一次污染物技术减排量及浓度下降幅度分别达2.17‰~5.50‰与3.20%~12.10%.三种情景下京津冀三地IER可避免早逝人数约占GEMM可避免早逝人数60%,各市S1和S2的可避免早逝人数分别约占S0可避免早逝人数4%~5%和9%~10%.寿命延长年的主要受益群体集中在65+和70+年龄组,石家庄、保定和唐山三市的寿命延长年总量约占全省的57%.S1的可避免经济损失约为S2的50%,仅为水泥行业实现“零排放”为理想情景(S0)的约5%.VSL方法估值最大,A_VSL次之,AHC最低.GEMM结果为例,三情景下三地可避免经济损失北京最大,除VSL、AHC方法的S0河北反超北京(44.89亿元vs 38.73亿元,0.36亿元vs 0.34亿元).

Abstract

Based on the 2020 emission inventory of 68 integrated cement plants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, three emission reduction scenarios were developed using 37 technologies and the CALPUFF model, two exposure-response functions (IER and GEMM), and three economic valuation methods (Value of statistical life(VSL), Age-adjusted value of statistical life(A_VSL), Amended human capital(AHC))were employed to assess the PM_2.5 reduction potential, concentration changes, and health impacts. The result demonstrated that under the technology-based reduction scenarios S1 and S2, the primary PM_2.5 emissions from reduction technologies and the total PM_2.5 concentration declined by 2.17‰~5.50‰ and 3.20%~12.10%, respectively. Under each scenario in three provinces, the avoidable deaths estimated by IER were about 60% of the result estimated by GEMM. Moreover, the avoided deaths under S1 and S2 in each city were 4%~5% and 9%~10% of the data under S0. The main beneficiary group of life extension years was concentrated in the 65+ and 70+ age groups, and the life extension years in Shijiazhuang, Baoding, and Tangshan contributed 57% of the total years in Hebei. Avoidable economic losses under S1were about 50% of those under S2 and only 5% of those under S0 (ideal scenario) which meant “zero emission”was realized in the cement industry. The value evaluated by VSL was highest, followed by the value evaluated by A_VSL and AHC. Taking the estimation of GEMM as an example, the avoidable economic loss in Beijing was the highest among the three provinces under three scenarios, whereas the avoidable economic loss evaluated by VSL and AHC in Hebei was higher than that in Beijing under S0 (4.489 billion yuan vs. 3.873 billion yuan; 0.36 billion yuan vs. 0.34 billion yuan).

导出引用

宗文婧, 杨须艳, 张笛, 张岳玲. 京津冀水泥行业PM_2.5技术减排及健康影响评价[J]. 中国环境科学. 2026, 46(1): 568-578

ZONG Wen-jing, YANG Xu-yan, ZHANG Di, ZHANG Yue-ling. PM_2.5 technological emission reduction from the cement industry and associated evaluation health impacts in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(1): 568-578

中图分类号： X513

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