若尔盖高原生态系统碳储量变化及驱动因素分析

孟姝含; 刘子刚

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中国环境科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 1084-1098.

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若尔盖高原生态系统碳储量变化及驱动因素分析

孟姝含, 刘子刚

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Analysis of carbon storage changes and driving factors in the ecosystem of the Zoige Plateau

MENG Shu-han, LIU Zi-gang

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摘要

基于1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据,利用PLUS模型模拟若尔盖高原2030年自然发展、生态恢复和经济发展3种情景下的土地利用变化,并通过InVEST模型估算1980~2030年生态系统碳储量,采用地理探测器模型分析碳储量空间分异的驱动因素.结果表明:若尔盖高原主要土地利用类型是草地、林地和湿地,1980~2020年,该区草地面积较少,湿地和林地面积增加.若尔盖高原1980~2020年生态系统碳储量在12.40~12.91亿t之间,草地和湿地是若尔盖高原的主要储碳生态系统类型,40a来碳储量增加的区域主要在若尔盖县、玛曲县和红原县的湿地集中区.2030年生态恢复情景下碳储量与2020年相比碳储量增加414.43万t,自然发展情景下碳储量减少445.67万t,经济发展情景下碳储量减少1159.58万t.若尔盖高原生态系统碳储量的空间分异主要受自然因素作用,其中,高程、年平均气温、土壤类型和坡度均为重要驱动因素,交互作用探测表明土壤类型与坡度的交互作用影响最大.

Abstract

Based on land use data from 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use changes in the Zoige Plateau by 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, ecological restoration, and economic development. The InVEST model was further employed to estimate the ecosystem carbon storage from 1980 to 2030. Finally, the Geographic Detector model was used to analyze the driving factors of spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results showed that: (1) The major land use types in the Zoige Plateau were grassland, woodland, and wetland. From 1980 to 2020, the area of grassland in the region decreased, while the area of wetland and woodland increased. (2) The carbon storage of the Zoige Plateau ecosystem ranged from 1.240 billion tons to 1.291 billion tons from 1980 to 2020. Grassland and wetland were the main carbon storage ecosystem types in the Zoige Plateau. The areas with increased carbon storage over the last 40 years were mainly concentrated in the wetland areas of Zoige County, Maqu County, and Hongyuan County. (3) Carbon storage in 2030increased by 4.1443 million tons compared to 2020 under the ecological restoration scenario, decreased by 4.4567 million tons under natural development scenario, and decreased by 11.5958 million tons under economic development scenario. (4) The spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the Zoige Plateau ecosystem was primarily influenced by natural factors, of which elevation, annual mean temperature, soil type, and slope were all important drivers. Interaction detection indicates that the interaction between soil type and slope had the greatest impact.

导出引用

孟姝含, 刘子刚. 若尔盖高原生态系统碳储量变化及驱动因素分析[J]. 中国环境科学. 2026, 46(2): 1084-1098

MENG Shu-han, LIU Zi-gang. Analysis of carbon storage changes and driving factors in the ecosystem of the Zoige Plateau[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(2): 1084-1098

中图分类号： X171.1

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