本研究基于投入产出法,利用Eora数据库,在考虑制造业子部门异质性特征下,分析2007~2017年“一带一路”沿线国家制造业隐含碳转移,并结合结构分解分析法识别其隐含碳排放变化的关键驱动因素.研究探讨重点国家产业链上贸易效应对隐含碳排放的驱动作用.结果显示:“一带一路”制造业隐含碳排放在研究期间增长25.19%,净排放下降361.09Mt,碳排放转变为消费驱动型.“一带一路”制造业相关隐含碳排放由石油、化工和非金属矿产品(C7)、金属制品(C8)和电气与机械(C9)等中端制造业,向下游农业(C1)、食品饮料(C4)、C9、建筑业(C14)等行业流出增大;电、煤气和水(C13)等上游能源行业向C4、C9等制造业流出增大.因此“一带一路”制造业发展需重视跨国上下游行业协同减排.对于“一带一路”地区制造业整体而言,人均需求效应是促进排放最大的因素(4323.27Mt),排放强度效应对排放抑制效果最显著(3199.96Mt),且均对C7和C9行业影响最明显.不同重点国家的关键隐含碳排放驱动因素有所差异,但对所有重点国家来说,前向联系效应均起到促进作用,后向联系效应则相反,显示出在国际贸易中发展绿色供应链的必要性.研究旨在为“一带一路”制造业低碳转型提供政策建议,强调根据国情和行业特征的差异化减排措施.
Abstract
Based on the input-output method, this study utilized the Eora database to assess carbon emissions and interregional transfer patterns within the manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries from 2007 to 2017. The structural decomposition analysis was employed to identify the key driving factors underlying changes in embodied carbon emissions, while the effects of five distinct trade-related mechanisms on the embodied carbon emissions within industrial chains of key BRI countries were explored in depth. The results indicate that embodied carbon dioxide emissions within the manufacturing industry along the BRI increased by 25.19% over the study period, while a net emission reduction of 361.09Mt was achieved, reflecting a transition towards a consumption-driven emissions structure. Embodied carbon dioxide emissions within the manufacturing sector have increasingly shifted from mid-end manufacturing industries, such as Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products(C7), Metal Products(C8), and Electrical and Machinery(C9) to downstream sectors, including Agriculture (C1), Food and Beverages (C4), C9, and Construction (C14). In addition, the embodied emission outflows from upstream energy industries, particularly Electricity, Gas and Water (C13), to manufacturing industries such as C4and C9has intensified. Therefore, the development of the manufacturing sector along the BRI needs to place greater emphasis on cross-border collaborative emission reduction across upstream and downstream industries. For the manufacturing industry as a whole in the BRI region, the per capita demand effect was the dominant factor of embodied carbon emissions, contributing an increase of 4323.27Mt, while the emission intensity effect exerted a substantial mitigation influence, reducing emissions by 3199.96Mt. Although the key drivers of embodied carbon emissions differ across major BRI countries, the forward linkage effect universally promotes emissions, while the backward linkage effect suppresses them. This contrast underscores the critical importance of developing green supply chains within international trade networks. Accordingly, this study proposes targeted policy recommendations for the low-carbon transition of the manufacturing industry along the BRI, highlighting the need for differentiated emission reduction strategies tailored to national and sectoral conditions.
关键词
一带一路 /
制造业 /
隐含碳排放 /
投入产出法 /
结构分解分析
Key words
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) /
manufacturing industry /
embodied carbon emission (ECE) /
input-output analysis /
structural decomposition analysis (SDA)
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基金
国家自然科学基金杰青项目(52125902)
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