基于互联网大数据的中国生活垃圾填埋场事故风险统计概率研究

张琪琪; 张少东; 徐铃鸿; 韩智勇

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中国环境科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 1176-1184.

环境影响评价与管理

基于互联网大数据的中国生活垃圾填埋场事故风险统计概率研究

张琪琪^1,2,3, 张少东^1,2,3, 徐铃鸿^1,2,3, 韩智勇^1,2,3

作者信息 +

Statistical probability of accident risks of municipal solid waste landfills in China based on internet big data

ZHANG Qi-qi^1,2,3, ZHANG Shao-dong^1,2,3, XU Ling-hong^1,2,3, HAN Zhi-yong^1,2,3

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

通过对2004~2022年互联网报道的中国生活填埋场事故风险事件进行大数据检索,采用离散型二项分布的概率模型,对填埋场事故风险概率进行统计分析,以期厘清事故类型、发生概率及其发展趋势,识别主要风险源,并提出针对性的防范措施.研究表明:中国生活垃圾填埋场事故数总计128件,事故年发生量总体呈波动上升趋势,2021年达到峰值后开始下降;填埋场事故风险发生概率为1.92×10^-2;事故类型占比由高到低依次为环境污染事故(52.34%)、火灾(13.28%)、中毒(10.16%)、坍塌(8.59%)、其他事故(8.59%)、爆炸(7.03%),其发生概率依次为1.0×10^-2、2.54×10^-3、1.95×10^-3、1.65×10^-3、1.65×10^-3、1.35×10^-3,其中环境污染事故最为突出;生活垃圾填埋场事故风险可以通过保障填埋场防渗、导排、覆盖等施工质量,完善渗滤液处理设施,加强填埋气导排与回收利用,严控明火,实时监测重点区域,构建风险事故应急体系,加强日常运行安全管理和宣传教育等措施进行管控.

Abstract

Based on big data retrieval of internet-reported risk incidents in municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills from 2004 to 2022 in China, landfill accident risks were statistically analyzed with a discrete binomial distribution probability mode. The aims were to clarify accident types, occurrence probabilities and trends, identify major risk sources, and propose targeted prevention measures, thereby providing a theoretical basis for landfill risk management. The results showed that a total of 128 MSW landfill accidents were reported, with annual occurrences exhibiting a fluctuating upward trend, peaking in 2021 before declining. The overall probability of landfill accidents was 1.92×10^-2, with the following distribution by type in descending order: environmental pollution incidents (with percentage of 52.34%, with probability of 1.0×10^-2), fires (13.28%, 2.54×10^-3), poisoning (10.16%, 1.95×10^-3), collapses (8.59%, 1.65×10^-3), other accidents (8.59%, 1.65×10^-3), and explosions (7.03%, 1.35×10^-3). Notably, Environmental pollution incidents were identified as the dominant accidents. To mitigate these risks, key measures include ensuring the quality of landfill engineering (such as seepage prevention system, drainage system and cover system et al.), improving leachate treatment facilities, enhancing landfill gas extraction and utilization, strict fire control, monitoring critical zones in real time, establishing emergency response systems, strengthening daily operational safety management, and promoting safety awareness.

导出引用

张琪琪, 张少东, 徐铃鸿, 韩智勇. 基于互联网大数据的中国生活垃圾填埋场事故风险统计概率研究[J]. 中国环境科学. 2026, 46(2): 1176-1184

ZHANG Qi-qi, ZHANG Shao-dong, XU Ling-hong, HAN Zhi-yong. Statistical probability of accident risks of municipal solid waste landfills in China based on internet big data[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(2): 1176-1184

中图分类号： X55

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