基于WRF-MEGAN-CMAQ耦合模型,量化2017年长三角热浪期间,气象条件及其驱动的植物源挥发性有机物(BVOCs)变化量对O3的直接及复合影响.结果表明:区域BVOCs年排放207.0万t(异戊二烯54.0%,单萜烯19.0%),呈现南高北低分布,夏季占比64.0%;热浪期间BVOCs总量增加248%,异戊二烯增量起主导作用;热浪驱动的BVOCs增量使区域O3日最大8h平均浓度上升3.6%(+6.1µg/m3),在光化学条件较强的浙北/苏南/皖江城市地区贡献尤其显著;热浪期间的气象条件(“直接效应”)是O3主控因子,贡献可达22.0%(+38.1µg/m3),影响自沿海向内陆递减;上海O3对热浪最敏感(+81.0µg/m3),江苏对BVOCs增量响应最强(+6.8µg/m3).研究表明,热浪通过直接气象效应与间接BVOCs增益双重渠道加剧O3污染.为应对气候变化,需针对热浪敏感区与BVOCs高排放区制定差异化策略.
Abstract
In this study, the direct and combined effects of meteorology and meteorology-driven biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions on surface ozone (O3) during the 2017 heatwaves in the Yangtze River Delta were quantified using a coupled WRF-MEGAN-CMAQ system. Regional BVOC emissions were estimated at 2.07 million tonnes annually, dominated by isoprene (54.0%) and monoterpenes (19.0%), with higher emissions in the south and 64.0% occurring in summer. During heatwave periods, total BVOC emissions increased by 248%, dominated by isoprene surge. Heatwave-induced increases in BVOCs elevated the regional maximum daily 8-hour average O3 concentrations by 3.6% (+6.1µg/m3), with strongest contributions in urban areas of northern Zhejiang, southern Jiangsu, and the Anhui Yangtze River corridor, where photochemical conditions could favor O3 formation. Meteorological conditions associated with heatwaves (the “direct effect”) were identified as the dominant driver of O3 enhancement, contributing up to 22.0% (+38.1µg/m3), with impacts decreasing from coastal to inland regions. Shanghai exhibited the highest O3 sensitivity to heatwaves (+81.0µg/m3), while Jiangsu showed the strongest O3 response to BVOCs emission increments (+6.8µg/m3). These results demonstrate that heatwaves exacerbate O3 pollution through dual pathways: direct meteorological effects and indirect BVOCs-mediated enhancement. To address O3 pollution risks under future climate warming, differentiated mitigation strategies targeting heatwave-sensitive regions and high-BVOC emission areas are required.
关键词
O3污染 /
BVOCs /
热浪 /
MEGAN /
CMAQ /
长三角
Key words
O3 pollution /
BVOCs /
heatwaves /
MEGAN /
CMAQ /
Yangtze River Delta
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基金
浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LQN25D050002, LZJMZ25D050002)
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