Dynamic assessment of water resources security in karst area based on SPA-MC model——a case study of Guiyang city
YANG Zhen-hua1, ZHOU Qiu-wen2, GUO-Yue3, SU Wei-ci3,4, ZHANG Feng-tai5
1. Institute of Karst, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, China;
2. School of Geography and Environment, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, China;
3. School of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 400047, China;
4. Institute of Mountain Resources, Guizhou Academy of Sciences, Guiyang 550001, China;
5. Institute of Environment, Resources and Disaster, Guizhou Normal College, Guiyang 550018, China
To reasonable evaluate water resources security situation in karst area, this paper based on the PESBR conceptual model, build evaluation index system of water resources safety which covered engineering water shortage characteristics, then the SPA-MC (Set pair analysis-Markov chain) coupling model was adopted to dynamically evaluated water resources security situation in Guiyang city during 2002~2014. According to the forecast results of the safety of water resources in Guiyang city 2015~2050, Guiyang city in the future water resources security will remain relatively safe state, the "safe" level of membership in the f1 2015~2050 period lasted from 0.365 rose to 0.435, while the "unsafe" level of f5 decreased from 0.194 to 0.138, with an average annual decline rate up to 1.93%; the example proved that the SPA-MC coupling model to evaluate the water resources dynamic results are reasonable and objective.
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YANG Zhen-hua, ZHOU Qiu-wen, GUO-Yue, SU Wei-ci, ZHANG Feng-tai. Dynamic assessment of water resources security in karst area based on SPA-MC model——a case study of Guiyang city. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2017, 37(4): 1589-1600.
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