Abstract：The early warning system of water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) was built on the basis of the dynamical simulation method of system dynamics (SD).Kunming was considered to study the overload warning of WECC.The obtained results illustrated that during 2015~2025,the comprehensive index of the WECC of Kunming would gradually increase from 1.78 to 2.22,indicating that the water environment overload condition would deteriorate.The system coupling coordination degree of Kunming would experience a fluctuation between 0.5 and 0.8,and the total efficacy of the society would be greater than that of the water environment,reflecting an antagonistic relationship between the social-economic subsystem and the water environment subsystem.The alert level would change from medium to high and the color of signal light would change from orange to red,indicating that Kunming would be continuously threatened with overloading of WECC in the future.
崔丹, 曾维华, 陈馨. 水环境承载力中长期预警研究-以昆明市为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2018, 38(3): 1174-1184.
CUI Dan, CHEN Xin, ZENG Wei-hua. Investigations on the medium-to-long term early warning of water environmental carrying capacity-A case study of Kunming City. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(3): 1174-1184.
Plate E J. Early warning and flood forecasting for large rivers with the lower Mekong as example[J]. Journal of Hydro-environment Research, 2008,1(2):80-94.
[9]
Sim H P S P, Burn D H B H, Tolsontolson B A. Probabilistic design of a riverine early warning source water monitori[J]. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 2009,36(6):1095-1106.
[10]
Dokas I M, Karras D A, Panagiotakopoulos D C. Fault tree analysis and fuzzy expert systems:Early warning and emergency response of landfill operations[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2009,24(1):8-25.
