Key impact factor identification and future distribution prediction of the anchovy spawning ground in the Bohai Sea

YU Jin-zhen; ZHANG Yan-wei; BIAN Xiao-dong; CHEN Yun-long; ZHANG Xue-qing

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China Environmental Science ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5) : 2214-2221.

Environmental Ecology

Key impact factor identification and future distribution prediction of the anchovy spawning ground in the Bohai Sea

YU Jin-zhen¹, ZHANG Yan-wei¹, BIAN Xiao-dong², CHEN Yun-long², ZHANG Xue-qing¹

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Abstract

To identify the key impact factors and predict the future distribution of the spawning ground in the Bohai Sea, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method was used to analyze the relationship between the anchovy eggs' distribution and the environmental factors. Based on the GWR model of anchovy spawning ground distribution established in this study, the future anchovy spawning ground in the Bohai Sea were predicted by considering the sea surface temperature and salinity variation trend. The results showed that the sea surface temperature, silicate concentration, salinity and water depth average regression coefficients are 1.296、-1.133、-0.374 and 0.521, which are the key factors influencing the anchovy spawning ground distribution. Under future scenario of the sea surface temperature and salinity, the area of the anchovy spawning ground will shrink in the future, the maximum percentage of shrinking area is to 47 now, especially in the northeast of the Bohai Bay. The distribution of the spawning ground will also change with the appearing of the new aggregation of the spawning ground in the Liaodong Bay. The GWR method can be used to identify the spatial non-stationarity of the variables. The results from the GWR model of the anchovy spawning ground distribution could provide scientific bases for the comprehensive ecological management of the Bohai Sea.

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anchovy / Bohai Sea / geographically weighted regression / spawning ground prediction

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YU Jin-zhen, ZHANG Yan-wei, BIAN Xiao-dong, CHEN Yun-long, ZHANG Xue-qing. Key impact factor identification and future distribution prediction of the anchovy spawning ground in the Bohai Sea[J]. China Environmental Science. 2020, 40(5): 2214-2221

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