Simulation and prediction of subtropical forest soil and surface water chemistry responses to reduced nitrogen and sulfur deposition in China using the MAGIC dynamic model

ZHOU Jian-xing; LI Bing-zhen; HAN Yi-meng; XIA Fan; XIE Dan-ni

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China Environmental Science ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5) : 2700-2712.

Simulation and prediction of subtropical forest soil and surface water chemistry responses to reduced nitrogen and sulfur deposition in China using the MAGIC dynamic model

ZHOU Jian-xing, LI Bing-zhen, HAN Yi-meng, XIA Fan, XIE Dan-ni

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Abstract

To predict the long-term response of soil and surface water chemistry after the reduction in acid deposition, a dynamic MAGIC model combined with long-term monitoring data was conducted on a subtropical forest in Tieshanping, Chongqing, Southwest China. Under the “actual emission reduction” scenario based on China's “14th Five-Year Plan” (where the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions remained at the 2020 level, and the nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and ammonia (NH₃) emissions were reduced by over 10% and 8%, respectively, by 2025), the simulation results indicated that sulfate (SO₄^2-) concentrations in soil water (S1and S2) and surface water (SW) initially increased, and stabilized after 2028 until 2050. The average SO₄^2- concentrations in S1, S2 and SW water from 2021 to 2050 were 1426, 1414, and 938èq/L, respectively, which were still above the 1980levels. The decline of SO₄^2- concentrations in surface water was delayed by approximately 23 years. Soil water nitrate (NO₃^-) concentrations showed a declining trend by 2050, but it remained above the threshold (443èq/L), whereas surface water NO₃^- concentrations had decreased below its threshold (411èq/L). The decline of NO₃^- concentrations in surface water was lagged approximately 13 years, compared to it in throughfall. Additionally, the concentrations of base cation (calcium, Ca²⁺) in both soil and surface water increased. The pH and Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) in soil and surface water remained below their acidification thresholds. The acidification recovery showed a lag effect. The strong acidic anions in soil and surface water will decrease below their thresholds, pH will increase, and ANC will increase above 0èq/L, when the stricter emission control policies were implemented, for example the SO₂ emissions decrease to 80% of 2021l evels by 2030 and 70% of 2021 levels by 2050, and the NH₃emissions, NO_x emissions, and Ca²⁺ deposition decrease to 60% of 2021 levels by 2030 and 40% of 2021 levels by 2050. Moreover, further global temperature increases showed insignificant impact on the major strong acidic anions and acidification indicators in the highly acidic soils and surface waters of the subtropical forest.

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acid deposition / acidic gas emission reduction / MAGIC model / soil and surface water chemistry / subtropical forest

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ZHOU Jian-xing, LI Bing-zhen, HAN Yi-meng, XIA Fan, XIE Dan-ni. Simulation and prediction of subtropical forest soil and surface water chemistry responses to reduced nitrogen and sulfur deposition in China using the MAGIC dynamic model[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(5): 2700-2712

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