Statistical probability of accident risks of municipal solid waste landfills in China based on internet big data

ZHANG Qi-qi; ZHANG Shao-dong; XU Ling-hong; HAN Zhi-yong

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China Environmental Science ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 1176-1184.

Environmental Impact Assessment and Management

Statistical probability of accident risks of municipal solid waste landfills in China based on internet big data

ZHANG Qi-qi^1,2,3, ZHANG Shao-dong^1,2,3, XU Ling-hong^1,2,3, HAN Zhi-yong^1,2,3

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Abstract

Based on big data retrieval of internet-reported risk incidents in municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills from 2004 to 2022 in China, landfill accident risks were statistically analyzed with a discrete binomial distribution probability mode. The aims were to clarify accident types, occurrence probabilities and trends, identify major risk sources, and propose targeted prevention measures, thereby providing a theoretical basis for landfill risk management. The results showed that a total of 128 MSW landfill accidents were reported, with annual occurrences exhibiting a fluctuating upward trend, peaking in 2021 before declining. The overall probability of landfill accidents was 1.92×10^-2, with the following distribution by type in descending order: environmental pollution incidents (with percentage of 52.34%, with probability of 1.0×10^-2), fires (13.28%, 2.54×10^-3), poisoning (10.16%, 1.95×10^-3), collapses (8.59%, 1.65×10^-3), other accidents (8.59%, 1.65×10^-3), and explosions (7.03%, 1.35×10^-3). Notably, Environmental pollution incidents were identified as the dominant accidents. To mitigate these risks, key measures include ensuring the quality of landfill engineering (such as seepage prevention system, drainage system and cover system et al.), improving leachate treatment facilities, enhancing landfill gas extraction and utilization, strict fire control, monitoring critical zones in real time, establishing emergency response systems, strengthening daily operational safety management, and promoting safety awareness.

Key words

municipal solid waste landfills / accident risk / accident probability / prevention measures / big data statistics

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ZHANG Qi-qi, ZHANG Shao-dong, XU Ling-hong, HAN Zhi-yong. Statistical probability of accident risks of municipal solid waste landfills in China based on internet big data[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(2): 1176-1184

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