Synoptic mechanisms analysis and prediction model development for ozone pollution triggered by approaching tropical cyclones in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

WANG Jun-bin; LI Ting-yuan; CHEN Jing-yang; GONG Yu; SHEN Jin

PDF(7896 KB)

China Environmental Science ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 1202-1215.

Synoptic mechanisms analysis and prediction model development for ozone pollution triggered by approaching tropical cyclones in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

WANG Jun-bin^1,2, LI Ting-yuan^1,2, CHEN Jing-yang^1,2, GONG Yu^1,2, SHEN Jin³

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data, reanalysis data, and ozone monitoring data from 2014 to 2024, the synoptic mechanism by which approaching tropical cyclones (ATCs) trigger ozone pollution in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was analyzed. A prediction model was developed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and the random forest regression method. The results indicated that: ATCs inducing ozone pollution in the GBA were primarily distributed within a range of 270~1758km, and a clear disparity in intensity was observed on the eastern and western sides of the line connecting Taiwan Island and Luzon Island. The ATCs east of the line all reach typhoon intensity or above, while those west range from tropical depression to severe typhoon intensity. Ozone pollution was induced by ATCs through the generation of subsiding airflows in upper levels, which reduces cloud cover over the GBA, increases downward shortwave radiation, elevates surface temperatures, and reduces relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed. Through SOM clustering analysis, four ozone pollution distribution patterns triggered by ATCs in the GBA were identified: the southwestern pollution pattern, the widespread pollution pattern, the western pollution pattern, and the northeastern pollution pattern. These patterns are associated with the transport and convergence effects of different surface wind fields. Ozone concentrations in the 11cities of the GBA were found to correlate well with tropical cyclone characteristics (radius of 7-level wind circle and proximity rate), as well as significant correlations with surface meteorological factors (such as land-sea wind direction difference and land-sea meridional wind speed difference) and upper-air meteorological factors (such as 200 hPa vertical velocity, 700 hPa meridional wind, 700 hPa specific humidity, and 925 hPa zonal wind). The forecasting model constructed based on 18factors, including tropical cyclone characteristics and surface and upper-air meteorological elements, demonstrates high generalizability and accuracy. The average correlation coefficient between the model's forecast values and the actual monitoring values reached 0.811, the average root mean square error was 30.2μg/m³, and the average TS score for ozone level prediction was 0.668.

Key words

tropical cyclone / the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area / ozone pollution / synoptic mechanisms / random forest model

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

WANG Jun-bin, LI Ting-yuan, CHEN Jing-yang, GONG Yu, SHEN Jin. Synoptic mechanisms analysis and prediction model development for ozone pollution triggered by approaching tropical cyclones in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(3): 1202-1215

References

[1] Atkinson R. Atmospheric chemistry of VOCs and NO_x [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2000,34(12-14):2063-2101.
[2] Tan Z F, Lu K D, Dong H B, et al. Explicit diagnosis of the local ozone production rate and the ozone-NOx-VOC sensitivities [J]. Science Bulletin, 2018,63(16):1067-1076.
[3] 尉晴晴,杨威强,裴成磊,等.珠三角夏秋转换季臭氧污染成因及前体物减排策略分析 [J]. 环境科学, 2024,45(10):5695-5705. Yu Q Q, Yang W Q, Pei C L, et al. Analysis of ozone pollution and precursor control strategies in the Pearl River Delta during summer and autumn transition season [J]. Environmental Science, 2024,45 (10):5695-5705.
[4] 薛鑫,陈镇,邬双双,等.气象条件对珠三角秋季地表臭氧年变化及趋势的影响 [J]. 环境科学, 2024,45(7). Xue X, Chen Z, Wu S S, et al. Meteorological influences on annual variation and trend of autumn surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta [J]. Environmental Science, 2024,45(7).
[5] 栗泽苑,杨雷峰,华道柱,等.2013~2018年中国近地面臭氧浓度空间分布特征及其与气象因子的关系 [J]. 环境科学研究, 2021,34(9): 2094-2104. Li Z Y, Yang L F, Hua D Z, et al. Spatial pattern of surface ozone and its relationship with meteorological variables in China during 2013~2018 [J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2021,34(9): 2094-2104.
[6] 李婷苑,汤静,沈劲,等.基于广义相加模型的广东省典型城市臭氧浓度气象影响因素分析 [J]. 环境科学, 2025,46(2):746-754. Li T Y, Tang J, Shen J, et al. Impact of meteorological factors on ozone concentration in four typical cities of Guangdong based on Generalized Additive Model [J]. Environmental Science, 2025,46(2): 746-754.
[7] 李婷苑,陈靖扬,龚宇,等.2022年广东省冬季一次臭氧污染过程的气象成因及潜在源区分析 [J]. 环境科学, 2023,44(7):3695-3704. Li T Y, Chen J Y, Gong Y, et al. Meteorological formation mechanisms and potential sources of an ozone pollution process in winter of 2022 in Guangdong province [J]. Environmental Science, 2023,44(7): 3695-3704.
[8] 李婷苑,陈靖扬,翁佳烽,等.广东省臭氧污染天气型及其变化特征 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2022,42(5):2015-2024. Li T Y, Chen J Y, Weng J F, et al. Ozone pollution synoptic patterns and their variation characteristics in Guangdong province [J]. China Environmental Science, 2022,42(5):2015-2024.
[9] Li T Y, Wu N G, Chen J Y, et al. Vertical exchange and cross-regional transport of lower-tropospheric ozone over Hong Kong [J]. Atmosoheric Research, 2023,292:106877.
[10] Wang J H, Wang P, Tian C F, et al. Consecutive northward super typhoons induced extreme ozone pollution events in Eastern China [J]. Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2024,7:244.
[11] Ouyang S S, Deng T, Liu R, et al. Impact of a subtropical high and a typhoon on a severe ozone pollution episode in the Pearl River Delta, China [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022,22(16):10751- 10767.
[12] Deng T, Wang T, Wang S, et al. Impact of typhoon periphery on high ozone and high aerosol pollution in the Pearl River Delta region [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019,668:617-630.
[13] 沈劲,李婷苑,廖彤,等.广东省夏秋季臭氧污染与台风的关系分析 [J]. 环境科学学报, 2023,43(1):152-160. Shen J, Li T Y, Liao T, et al. Analysis on the relationship between ozone pollution and typhoons in summer and autumn in Guangdong Province [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2023,43(1):152-160.
[14] 符传博,丹利,佟金鹤,等.热带气旋对海南岛臭氧污染的影响分析 [J]. 环境科学, 2023,44(6):3089-3097. Fu C B, Dan L, Tong J H, et al. Effects of tropical cyclones on ozone pollution in Hainan island [J]. Environmental Science, 2023,44(6): 3089-3097.
[15] Ding H, Kong L B, You Y C, et al. Effects of tropical cyclones with different tracks on ozone pollution over the Pearl River Delta region [J]. Atmosoheric Research, 2023,286:106680.
[16] 张宇烽,杨俊俊,陈婷婷,等.西北太平洋台风路径对汕头市秋季臭氧污染的影响 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2024,44(12):6538-6548. Zhang Y F, Yang J J, Chen T T, et al. Influence of typhoon track in northwest Pacific on ozone pollution in autumn in Shantou City [J]. China Environmental Science. 2024,44(12):6538-6548.
[17] 赵伟,吕梦瑶,卢清,等.热带气旋对珠三角秋季臭氧污染的影响 [J]. 环境科学, 2022,43(6):2957-2965. Zhao W, Lu M Y, Lu Q, et al. Effects of tropical cyclones on ozone pollution in the Pearl River Delta in autumn [J]. Environmental Science, 2022,43(6):2957-2965.
[18] Lam Y F, Cheung H M, Ying C C. Impact of tropical cyclone track change on regional air quality [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018,610-611:1347-1355.
[19] 花丛,尤媛,王皘,等.2020年“三连击”台风对我国东部地区O₃污染的影响分析 [J]. 环境科学, 2024,45(1):71-80. Hua C, You Y, Wang Q, et al. Analysis of O₃ pollution affected by a succession of three landfall typhoons in 2020 in Eastern China [J]. Environmental Science, 2024,45(1):71-80.
[20] Hu W Z, Liu R, Chen Z C, et al. Processes conducive to high ozone formation in Pearl River Delta in the presence of Pacific tropical cyclones [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2023,307(15):119859.
[21] Wei X L, Lam K S, Cao C Y, et al. Dynamics of the typhoon Haitang related high ozone episode over Hong Kong [J]. Advances in Meteorology, 2016,10:1-12.
[22] Younis M W, Saritha, Kallapu B, et al. Exploring the influence of tropical cyclones on regional air quality using multimodal deep learning techniques [J]. Sensors (Basel), 2024,24(21):6983.
[23] Zheng L, Lin R, Wang X, et al. The development and application of machine learning in atmospheric environment studies [J]. Remote Sensing, 2021,13(23):4839.
[24] Chen Y L, Yang Y J, Gao M. Typhoon-associated air quality over the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China: machine- learning-based prediction and assessment [J]. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 2023,16(5):1279-1294.
[25] 黄鹤雯,沙青娥,朱曼妮,等.珠三角2010~2017年主要工业源VOCs排放结构与组分变化 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2020,40(11):4641-4651. Huang H W, Sha Q E, Zhu M N, et al. Evolution of emission characteristics and species of industrial VOCs emission in Pearl River Delta Region, 2010~2017 [J]. China Environmental Science, 2020,40 (11):4641-4651.
[26] 孟博文,李永波,孟晶,等.我国经济快速发展区工业VOCs排放特征及管控对策 [J]. 环境科学, 2021,42(3):1023-1038. Meng B W, Li Y B, Meng J, et al. Industrial emission characteristics and control countermeasures of VOCs in Chinese rapid economic development areas [J]. Environmental Science, 2021,42(3):1023- 1038.
[27] 范绍佳,王海潮,卢骁,等.20世纪90年代以来粤港澳大湾区臭氧污染研究进展 [J]. 环境科学学报, 2023,43(1):1-18. Fan S J, Wang H C, Lu X, et al. Progresses on ozone pollution in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area since 1990s [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2023,43(1):1-18.
[28] Yin J, Yin Z, Xu S Y. Composite risk assessment of typhoon-induced disaster for China's coastal area [J]. Natural Hazards, 2013,69:1423– 1434.
[29] Wang Y J, Yin Y Z, Song L C. Risk assessment of typhoon disaster chains in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area, China [J]. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022,10:839733.
[30] Kohonen T. 1995. Self-organizing maps [M]. Heidelberg: Springer Berlin, 1995.
[31] Sheridan S C and Lee C C. The self-organizing map in synoptic climatological research [J]. Progress in Physical Geography, 2011,35: 109–119.
[32] Lennard C and Hegerl G. Relating changes in synoptic circulation to the surface rainfall response using self-organising maps [J]. Climate Dynamic, 2015,44:861–879.
[33] Gibson P B, Perkins-Kirkpatrick S E, Uotila P, et al. On the use of self-organizing maps for studying climate extremes [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2017,122:2891–3903.
[34] 洪莹莹,翁佳烽,谭浩波,等.珠江三角洲秋季典型O₃污染的气象条件及贡献量化 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2021,41(1):1-10. Hong Y Y, Weng J F, Tan H B, et al. Meteorological conditions and contribution quantification of typical ozone pollution during autumn in Pearl River Delta [J]. China Environmental Science, 2021,41(1):1-10.
[35] Wang Z S, Lv J A, Tang Y F, et al. Temporospatial variations and Spearman correlation analysis of ozone concentrations to nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matters and carbon monoxide in ambient air, China [J]. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2019,10(4): 1203-1210.
[36] Ge Q, Zhang X S, Cai K, et al. Ozone pollution in Chinese cities: spatiotemporal variations and their relationships with meteorological and other pollution factors (2016~2020) [J]. Atmosphere, 2022,13(6): 908.
[37] 周永江,姚宜斌,熊永良,等.基于Spearman秩相关系数的PWV与PM_2.5相关性研究 [J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2020,40(3):236-241. Zhou Y J, Yao Y B, Xiong Y L, et al. Study of correlation between PWV and PM_2.5 based on spearman rank correlation coefficient [J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2020,40(3):236-241.
[38] Herman G R and Schumacher R S, Money doesn’t grow on trees, but forecasts do: Forecasting extreme precipitation with random forests [J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2018,146:1571–1600.
[39] Loken E D, Clark A J, McGovern A, et al. Postprocessing next-day ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts using random forests [J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2019,34:2017–2044.
[40] Zhan Y, Luo Y Z, Deng X F, et al. Spatiotemporal prediction of daily ambient ozone levels across China using random forest for human exposure assessment [J]. Environmental Pollution, 2018,233:464–473.
[41] 杨晓彤,康平,王安怡,等.基于随机森林模型的四川盆地臭氧污染预测 [J]. 环境科学, 2024,45(5):2507-2515. Yang X T, Kang P, Wang A Y, et al. Prediction of ozone pollution in Sichuan basin based on random forest model [J]. Environmental Science, 2024,45(5):2507-2515.
[42] HJ 1130-2020 环境空气质量数值预报技术规范 [S]. HJ 1130-2020 Technical guideline for numerical forecasting of ambient air quality [S].
[43] 张天航,迟茜元,饶晓琴,等.2018年国家级空气质量主客观预报TS评分对比检验 [J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2019,9(3):213-222. Zhang T H, Chi Q Y, Rao X Q, et al. Verification of national subjective and objective air quality forecast in 2018 by TS score [J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2019,9(3):213-222.
[44] 符传博,林建兴,唐家翔,等.海口市臭氧浓度统计预报模型的构建与效果评估 [J]. 环境科学, 2024,45(5):2516-2524. Fu C B, Lin J X, Tang J X, et al. Establishment and effective evaluation of Haikou ozone concentration statistical prediction model [J]. Environmental Science, 2024,45(5):2516-2524.
[45] 中国气象局预报与网络司.预报司关于调整台风编号和定位警戒区的通知(气预函[2014]21号) [R]. 北京:中国气象局预报与网络司, 2014. Department of Forecasting and Networking, China Meteorological Administration. Notice on the adjustment of typhoon numbering and the positioning of warning zones [R]. Beijing: Department of Forecasting and Networking, China Meteorological Administration, 2014.
[46] Liu C X, He C, Wang Y M, et al. Characteristics and mechanism of a persistent ozone pollution event in Pearl River Delta induced by typhoon and subtropical high [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2023,310: 119964.
[47] Wu L G, Tian W, Liu Q Y, et al. Implications of the observed relationship between tropical cyclone size and intensity over the Western North Pacific [J]. Journal of Cliamte, 2015,28(24):9501- 9506.
[48] 黄俊,廖碧婷,吴兑,等.广州近地面臭氧浓度特征及气象影响分析 [J]. 环境科学学报, 2018,38(1):23-31. Huang J, Liao B T, Wu D, et al. Guangzhou ground level ozone concentration characteristics and associated meteorological factors [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2018,38(1):23-31.
[49] 黄小刚,邵天杰,赵景波,等.气象因素和前体物对中国东部O₃浓度分布的影响 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2019,39(6):2273-2282. Huang X G, Shao T J, Zhao J B, et al. Impact of meteorological factors and precursors on spatial distribution of ozone concentration in Eastern China [J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,39(6):2273- 2282.
[50] 何超,慕航,杨璐,等.中国暖季近地面臭氧浓度空间格局演变及主要气象驱动因素 [J]. 环境科学, 2021,42(9):4168-4179. He C, Mu H, Yang L, et al. Spatial variation of surface ozoneconcentration during the warm season and its meteorological driving factors in China [J]. Environmental Science, 2021,42(9):4168- 4179.
[51] 陈辰,洪莹莹,谭浩波,等.佛山臭氧浓度预报方程的建立与应用 [J]. 环境科学, 2022,43(10):4316-4326. Chen C, Hong Y Y, Tan H B, et al. Establishment and application of Foshan ozone concentration forecast equation [J]. Environmental Science, 2022,43(10):4316-4326.
[52] 王磊,刘端阳,韩桂荣,等.南京地区近地面臭氧浓度与气象条件关系研究 [J]. 环境科学学报, 2018,38(4):1285-1296. Wang L, Liu D Y, Han G R, et al. Study on the relationship between surface ozone concentrations meteorological conditions in Nanjing, China [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2018,38(4):1285-1296.
[53] 李婷苑,吴乃庚,邓雪娇,等.华南区域大气成分数值模式GRACEs预报性能评估 [J]. 热带气象学报, 2021,37(2):207-217. Li T Y, Wu N G, Deng X J, et al. Forecasting performance evaluation of GRACEs in Guangdong Province [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2021,37(2):207-217.