Study on the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of China’s carbon emissions from a consumption-based perspective

LI Wen-qing; HE Guo-hua; YANG Qing-hai; LIN Lü; YAN Zeng-min; XIAO Chan; LIU Lü-liu

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China Environmental Science ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 1682-1693.

Study on the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of China’s carbon emissions from a consumption-based perspective

LI Wen-qing¹, HE Guo-hua¹, YANG Qing-hai², LIN Lü³, YAN Zeng-min², XIAO Chan⁴, LIU Lü-liu⁴

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Abstract

This study adopts a consumption-based perspective and, drawing on long time-series input-output data from 189economies around the world, calculates the scale embodied carbon transfers in China (referring specifically to China’s mainland and excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 1997 to 2021. It identifies the characteristics of consumption-based carbon emissions of eight industries: agriculture; mining and quarrying; light industries; heavy industries; machinery and equipment manufacturing; electricity, gas, and water supply; other industries; and living and tertiary industries. Furthermore, it analyzes the key drivers of changes in consumption-based carbon emissions across different periods. The findings reveal that from 1997 to 2021, China consistently remained a net exporter of embodied carbon emissions, with light industries, heavy industries, and machinery and equipment manufacturing serving as the main sources of embodied carbon exports. The United States, Japan, and China’s Hong Kong were the main destinations of these exports. In 2021, China’s consumption-based carbon emissions totaled 10,156million tons, 1,289million tons lower than its production-based emissions, indicating that under the consumption-based perspective, China’s carbon emission responsibility is 11.26% lower than that under the production-based perspective. In terms of driving factors, the increase in consumption scale was the main factor driving the growth of China’s consumption-based carbon emissions from 1997 to 2021, with a contribution rate of 159.31%. Changes in population size, improvements in energy utilization efficiency, and adjustments in the energy structure contributed 11.04%, -63.40%, and -6.96%, respectively, to changes in consumption-based carbon emissions. Based on these results, the study discusses the unfairness of assigning carbon emission responsibility under the production-based perspective, highlights key areas of focus for China’s carbon emission reduction efforts, and demonstrates the reliability of the findings.

Key words

international trade / carbon emissions / input-output analysis / evolutionary characteristics / driving mechanisms / China

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LI Wen-qing, HE Guo-hua, YANG Qing-hai, LIN Lü, YAN Zeng-min, XIAO Chan, LIU Lü-liu. Study on the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of China’s carbon emissions from a consumption-based perspective[J]. China Environmental Science. 2026, 46(3): 1682-1693

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