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Abstract In order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic development on environment, a framework of environment-economic situation analysis based on the method of macroeconomic prosperity analysis was set up. An index system for environmental and economic prosperity analysis was established. There were two categories of indicators, as leading and coincidence indicators, mainly from the factors influencing environmental development trend. Also prosperity index was calculated, and it could be used to predict the environmental development trend. This method was applied to investigate the trend of SO2 emission in China. In 2008, the diffusion index of coincidence indicators was 71.43, presenting a prosperous situation; the composite index was 99.53, slightly lower than that of 2002. Socio-economic development had a prosperous effect on environment, while the diffusion index of leading indicators dropping into the depression region presented some adverse effects on SO2 emissions mitigation. Further steps should be taken to ensure the harmony of socio-economic development and environmental protection, such as adjusting the partitioning among key industries and fixed asset investment growth rate, improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy consumption structure.
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Received: 13 January 2011
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