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| Air quality forecasting system based on model products of CMAQ in Fuzhou City |
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Abstract Based on the forecasting products of Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), observation of air pollutants and the conventional ground meteorological data from January 2007 to June 2010 in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China, the models were developed to forecast daily air pollutant concentration for various weather systems by statistical-dynamic forecast method and multivariate linear stepwise regression. The models featured both CMAQ forecast products and various other forecast parameters. The results showed that there were 7 weather systems influencing Fuzhou City: continental high, subtropical high, shear, warm sectors convergence, upper trough, typhoon and tropical convergence. The air quality was poor under the control of warm sectors convergence, upper trough or continental high weather systems. In contrast, when Fuzhou was under the control of subtropical high or typhoon, the air quality was better. The p-value associated with the forecast functions of air pollutant level was 0.000, so the models were statistically significant. The models were tested on the air pollutant data in Fuzhou from June to December 2010 by back substitution. The forecast accuracy of the models on contamination index level of PM10 reached 71.3%, while the forecast accuracy on SO2 and NO2 were 100%. The comprehensive score of daily air quality forecast in the city of Fuzhou was 88.8 points on average.
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Received: 13 February 2012
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