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| Decomposition analysis on the variation of China’s annual environmental pollution accidents, 1991-2010 |
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Abstract Based on the time series data from 1991 to 2010 in China, a determinant decomposition model was established to analyze the annual changes of the frequencies of environmental pollution accidents(EPAs). In the model, the changing frequencies of EPAs were decomposed to three different driving factors: economic scale, pollution control investments and risk control technology levels. Each factor was then measured and analyzed. From 1991 to 2010 the annual changes of the frequencies of EPAs showed a decreasing trend. Inter-annual change mean of EPAs was -138, thereinto, economic scale, pollution control investments and risk control technology levels had different contributions to the change, being 279, -74, -344 respectively. The empirical results show that different factors had a comprehensive impact on the variation of frequencies of EPAs, but they exerted different effects in different periods of time. The factor of increased economic scale played a promotive role in the increasing frequency of EPAs, which however will be reduced with the increase of economic scale to some degree. The factor of pollution control investments had no significant effects on the reduction of frequencies of EPAs from 1991 to 2005. The factor of risk control technologies led to a significant reduction of frequencies of EPAs.
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Received: 27 August 2012
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