|
|
Ecological risk assessment and prediction of Ebinur Lake region based on Land use/Land cover change |
ZHANG Yue1,2, ZHANG Fei1,2,3, WANG Juan1,2, REN Yan1,2, Abduwasit Ghulam4, Hsiang-te KUNG5 |
1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Wisdom City and Environment Modeling, Urumqi 830046, China;
4. Center for sustainability, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63108, USA;
5. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA |
|
|
Abstract This paper presented a study of land use and land cover change from 1998 to 2013, and likelihood of change through 2028 using remote sensing, geographic information system, and CA-Markov model in inland area of Ebinur lake basin in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Fragstats 3.4 to construct landscape ecological risk assessment model was used. Spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks due to land use changes in the study area was analyzed. Results showed that: (1) the area of land types changed significantly in the study area from 1998 to 2013. For example, area of cultivated land was significantly increased to 152139 hm2. However, area of unutilized land was correspondingly decreased, which was 67605 hm2. From 2013 to 2028, cultivated land and the bared lakebed and salinized land increased significantly, approximately 30730 hm2 and 12427 hm2 respectively. However, area of unutilized land and water were decreased significantly from 954376 hm2 and 44889 hm2 to 921079 hm2 and 37157hm2, respectively. (2) From 1998 to 2028, spatial distributions of ecological risk have changed significantly in the study area. Areas of high ecological risk accounted for 36.6%, 7.3%, and 23.7% of the total area, respectively. From 1998 to 2028, the Moran's Ⅰ values were 0.436962, 0.442202, 0.506622, respectively. Moran's Ⅰ of the landscape pattern showed positive spatial autocorrelation, and had a rising trend. (3) From 1998 to 2028, the cultivated land distribution in the low and lower ecological risk area have increased. Its area accounted for the total area about 58.46%, 78.58%, and 79.9%, respectively. Forest, grassland ecological risk levels fluctuated in different levels.
|
Received: 29 March 2016
|
|
|
|
|
[1] |
肖琳,田光进.天津市土地利用生态风险评价[J]. 生态学杂志, 2014,33(2):469-476.
|
[2] |
杨勇,任志远.城市近郊区土地利用生态风险评价-以西安市长安区为例[J]. 土壤通报, 2015,46(3):519-525.
|
[3] |
Xie H L, Wang P, Huang H S. Ecological risk assessment of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2013,10:328-346.
|
[4] |
叶长盛,冯艳芬.基于土地利用变化的珠江三角洲生态风险评价[J]. 农业工程学报, 2013,29(19):224-232,294.
|
[5] |
许妍,马明辉,高俊峰.流域生态风险评估方法研究——以太湖流域为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2012,32(9):1693-1701.
|
[6] |
海米提·依米提,祖皮艳木·买买提,李建涛,李新国.焉耆盆地土壤重金属的污染及潜在生态风险评价[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014,34(6):1523-1530.
|
[7] |
Zhang C Q, Dong B, Liu L, et al. Study on ecological risk assessment for land-use of wetland based on different scale[J]. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 2016,44(5):821-828.
|
[8] |
He X R, Zhong X H, Chen X W. Analysis on landscape ecological risk of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateaus:A case study on Niyang river basin[J]. Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences, 2006,11(4):977-983.
|
[9] |
彭建,党威雄,刘焱序,等.景观生态风险评价研究进展与展望[J]. 地理学报, 2015,70(4):664-677.
|
[10] |
刘世梁,刘琦,张兆苓,等.云南省红河流域景观生态风险及驱动力分析[J]. 生态学报, 2014,34(13):3728-3734.
|
[11] |
周启刚,张晓媛,王兆林.基于正态云模型的三峡库区土地利用生态风险评价[J]. 农业工程学报, 2014,30(23):289-297.
|
[12] |
谢花林.基于景观结构的土地利用生态风险空间特征分析-以江西兴国县为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2011,31(4):688-695.
|
[13] |
肖杨,毛显强.区域景观生态风险空间分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2006,26(5):623-626.
|
[14] |
Mclntyrea S, Lavorel S. A conceptual model of land use effects on the structure and function of herbaceous vegetation[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2007,119(1):11-21.
|
[15] |
赵岩洁,李阳兵,邵景安.基于土地利用变化的三峡库区小流域生态风险评价-以草堂溪为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013,28(6):944-956.
|
[16] |
谢霞,王宏卫,塔西甫拉提·特依拜.艾比湖区域生态脆弱性评估与保护[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2012,49(3):531-536.
|
[17] |
左彤,何玲,张俊梅.基于CA-Markov模型的滨海土壤盐渍化动态变化研究-以黄骅市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2014,36(6):1298-1305.
|
[18] |
程刚,张祖陆,吕建树.基于CA-Markov模型的三川流域景观格局分析及动态预测[J]. 生态学杂志, 2013,32(4):999-1005.
|
[19] |
赵永华,贾夏,刘建朝,等.基于多源遥感数据的景观格局及预测研究[J]. 生态学报, 2013,33(8):2556-2564.
|
[20] |
李志,刘文兆,郑粉莉.基于CA-Markov模型的黄土塬区黑河流域土地利用变化[J]. 农业工程学报, 2010,26(1):346-352,391.
|
[21] |
朱海涌,李新琪,仲嘉亮.基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖流域平原区景观格局动态模拟预测[J]. 干旱环境监测, 2008,22(3):134-139.
|
[22] |
刘洁,李宏,马勇刚.基于CA-Markov模型的中亚典型城市土地利用变化预测分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2014,21(3):51-56.
|
[23] |
张利,周亚鹏,门明新,等.基于不同种类生态安全的土地利用情景模拟[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015,31(5):308-316.
|
[24] |
张飞,王娟,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,等.1998~2013年新疆艾比湖湖面时空动态变化及其驱动机制[J]. 生态学报, 2015,35(9):2848-2859.
|
[25] |
吴莉,侯西勇,邸向红.山东省沿海区域景观生态风险评价[J]. 生态学杂志, 2014,33(1):214-220.
|
[26] |
巩杰,赵彩霞,谢余初,等.基于景观格局的甘肃白龙江流域生态风险评价与管理[J]. 应用生态学报, 2014,25(7):2041-2048.
|
[27] |
张学斌,石培基,罗君,等.基于景观格局的干旱内陆河流域生态风险分析-以石羊河流域为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(3):410-419.
|
[28] |
陈鹏,潘晓玲.干旱区内陆河流域区域景观生态风险分析-以阜康三工河流域为例[J]. 生态学杂志, 2003,22(4):116-120.
|
[29] |
巩杰,谢余初,赵彩霞,等.甘肃白龙江流域景观生态风险评价及其时空分异[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014,34(8):2153-2160.
|
[30] |
高宾,李小玉,李志刚,等.基于景观格局的锦州湾沿海经济开发区生态风险分析[J]. 生态学报, 2011,31(12):3221-3450.
|
[31] |
孙才志,闫晓露,钟敬秋.下辽河平原景观格局脆弱性及空间关联格局[J]. 生态学报, 2014,34(2):247-257.
|
|
|
|