美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估

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Abstract On the basis of different principles of climate equity, and by applying dynamic measurement of equity indicators, we established an integrated framework to allocate cumulative carbon emissions permits from 2010 to 2100, calculated the regional distribution of the permits, and assessed the fairness and ambition of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of US, EU, China and India respectively. The results show that there are emissions gaps of 8.0~9.6Gt CO₂ between the aggregated mitigation effects of INDCs of the four regions and the mitigation requirement of 2℃ target in 2030. China and India's INDCs can meet the 2℃ target requirement under their most favourable effort-sharing schemes, while US and EU need to improve their ambition compared with the mitigation requirement of all schemes. The results are sensitive to key methods and parameters applied, such as static or dynamic measuring of climate equity indicators, and starting year of historic cumulative emissions accounting.

Key words： climate equity cumulative carbon emissions intended nationally determined contribution fairness and ambition

Received: 20 April 2016

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	CUI Xue-qin
	WANG Ke
	ZOU Ji

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CUI Xue-qin,WANG Ke,ZOU Ji. Assessing the fairness and ambition of intended nationally determined contributions of US, EU, China and India[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2016, 36(12): 3831-3840.

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http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/EN/ OR http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/EN/Y2016/V36/I12/3831

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