基于LEAP模型的云南省供给侧结构性改革对产业碳排放影响情景分析

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Abstract LEAP model was applied to evaluate the supply-side structural reforms' impacts on industrial carbon emissions and intensity by setting economic and technological scenarios in Yunnan province from 2012 to 2050. The results demonstrated that the industrial carbon emissions would reduce 0.49billion tons in the supply-side reform scenario in 2050 compared to the reference scenario. However, carbon emissions in Yunnan would rise steadily which led to missing the target of achieving a peak in 2030. Most of the carbon emissions were contributed by five carbon intensive sectors as electricity, metal processing, non-metal production, transportation and chemistry. In these five sectors, only carbon emissions in transportation sector would increase substantially while carbon emissions in other 4sectors would all decrease. Seven carbon intensive energies would contribute over 96% of industrial carbon emissions and this proportion would keep stable during 2012~2050. In these carbon intensive energies, coals' contribution would decrease stably but oils and nature gas would contribute more carbon emissions. In order to realize low-carbon transformation, the government of Yunnan province should make more efforts on achieving the target to control the volume of carbon emissions. Measures on supply-side reforms should be strengthened to deal with the sharp increase of carbon emissions in the transportation sector in the future. Meanwhile, more measures should be applied on renewable energy exploit and its utility efficiency improvement.

Key words： supply-side structural reforms industrial carbon emissions scenario analysis LEAP model Yunnan province

Received: 05 June 2016

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	DENG Ming-xiang
	LI Wei

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DENG Ming-xiang,LI Wei. Scenario analysis of the supply-side structural reform influences on industrial carbon emissions based on LEAP model in Yunnan province[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2017, 37(2): 786-794.

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http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/EN/ OR http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/EN/Y2017/V37/I2/786

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