天津地区霾天气特征研究

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Abstract

A research was carried out on characteristics of the haze weather in Tianjin based on the monitoring data of PM_2.5 mass concentration, visibility and relative humidity in the area from 2014 to 2017, The findings showed that there are five types of haze processes above moderate degree in Tianjin:that in the rear of high pressure, that caused by weak high pressure from north, that caused by low pressure trough, that caused by uniform pressure field and that caused by low pressure before front. As per the current standards, moderate haze generally corresponds to severely polluted weather; severe haze corresponds to severely to untra-severely polluted weather. Moderate to severe haze usually occurs in Level V severely polluted weather, and severe haze occurs in Level VI ultra-severely polluted weather. After "Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan" was implemented in 2013, PM_2.5 mass concentration and haze days were significantly reduced, by 2017, the number of haze days had decreased by 55% compared with 2013, moderate and above haze days decreased by 50% from 41d in 2013 to 20d in 2017. Based on the monitoring data of PM_2.5 mass concentration, visibility and relative humidity, the calculation equation of regional visibility can be well constructed. Statistics showed that the correlation coefficient between visibility and real value in the estimation is 0.94, with the relative error 18.6%, identification accuracy rate of the non-haze day is 85%, that of the haze days 95.6%, that of the ultra-slight haze days 83%, that of the slight haze days 78%, that of moderate haze days 93% and that of severe and above haze days 94%, which is greatly applicable for judgement of haze level. This equation was combined with the air quality model to predict the haze level. Inspection of the forecasting product showed:the correlation coefficient between the forecast values and real values of visibility is 0.75, with average forecast value 13.9km and the average real value 14.1km, and the relative error rate 29.6%, the FAC2 (the ratio of the forecast value to two times the real value) is 98.1%, the forecast accuracy rate, forecast missing rate and false rate of the haze days are 81.4%, 18.6% and 20.6%, respectively. Let the tolerance be of Level I, the forecast accuracy rates of ultra-slight haze days, the slight haze days and the moderate and above haze days are 96%, 85% and 69%, respectively, which may effectively support the haze level forecast in Tianjin.

Key words： forecast of haze level severely polluted weather Tianjin

Received: 24 May 2018

PACS:

X131.1

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	Articles by authors
	CAI Zi-ying
	YAO Qing
	HAN Su-qin
	QIU Xiao-bin
	ZHANG-Min
	WU Bin-gui
	WANG Xue-lian

Cite this article:

CAI Zi-ying,YAO Qing,HAN Su-qin等. Research on characteristics of haze weather in Tianjin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(1): 50-60.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2019/V39/I1/50

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