中国典型社会源危险废物的资源潜力分析

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Abstract

This paper predicts and estimates the potential amount of resources that can be recycled from typical social-sourced hazardous wastes in China. This paper defines the concept of social-sourced hazardous wastes in China and constructs their material metabolism model. Leveraging GM(1,1) Model and Weibull Distribution Model, we predict the consumption and scrap amount dynamic of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes and further build the forecasting model of potential amount of resources that can be generated from those wastes. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility and value of potential resources. Our research data contain the amount of original products (of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes) consumed in China from 2006 to 2015. As the results of our prediction, by 2025, 416 million kW·h of spent lead-acid batteries, 634 million of waste energy-saving bulbs, and 109 million square meters of waste circuit boards will be produced in China; potentially more than 12 million tons of renewable resources can be recycled from these typical social-sourced hazardous wastes, mainly including 1500 tons of precious metals, 3.68 million tons of hazardous heavy metals, and 8.79 million tons of other renewable resources.

Key words： social-sourced hazardous wastes scrapped amount potential resources

Received: 22 June 2018

PACS:	X327
	X705

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	LIU Guang-fu
	TIAN Ting-ting
	LIU Yan-ran

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LIU Guang-fu,TIAN Ting-ting,LIU Yan-ran. Analysis on the potentials of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes in China[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(2): 691-697.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2019/V39/I2/691

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