中国PM<sub>2.5</sub>序列惯性特征及政策含义

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Abstract

This paper empirically analyzed the inertial characteristics, structural changes and amplification effects of PM_2.5 sequences using AR model and TAR model, using hourly PM_2.5 mass concentration monitoring data from 2009 to 2017 in Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang. There existed relatively strong inertia of PM_2.5 sequences in the five cities, especially in Chengdu. It was also found that there were structural changes from 2009 to 2017 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The PM_2.5 sequences of the five cities are obviously nonlinear. The PM_2.5 in the five cities were running at a low level, and the inertial characteristics were obvious. In addition, there was no obvious amplification effect, suggesting that the haze pollution prevention was not necessary to consider the amplification effect of the PM_2.5 sequence. The inertial characteristics of the PM_2.5 sequences at the low regime required more attention in policy-making in the future.

Key words： inertia TAR model structural change PM_2.5

Received: 15 January 2019

PACS:

X196

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	Articles by authors
	MAO Xue-feng
	DU Rui
	WANG Xi-qin

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MAO Xue-feng,DU Rui,WANG Xi-qin. Analysis of inertial characteristics of PM_2.5 sequences and its policy implications in China[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(6): 2659-2666.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2019/V39/I6/2659

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