基于AOD数据和GWR模型估算京津冀地区PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度

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Abstract In this study, a MODIS AOD (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aerosol Optical Depth) combination method was proposed based on land cover type, and a new 3km AOD data set was generated. PM_2.5 concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region for the year of 2016 was estimated by the Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) model, and was evaluated by the method of cross-validation. The results showed that the model established by AOD data after combination could explain 94.85% of the PM_2.5 concentration change, with the cross-validation R² of 0.94, the RMSE of 9.27μg/m³, and the MPE of 6.72μg/m³. These values were significantly better than that of the multiple linear regression (MLR) model; Based on the GWR model, average annual PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was 58.57μg/m³, with the highest concentration of PM_2.5 in winter, followed by spring and autumn, and the concentration in summer was the lowest. The monthly average concentration of PM_2.5 varied from 32.78 to 140.83μg/m³, the lowest and the highest concentrations were estimated in August and in December, respectively. The spatial distribution was significant compared with north part from south, the PM_2.5 pollution in Hengshui City was the most serious, PM_2.5 concentration was the lowest in Zhangjiakou. This method successfully compensated for the lack of PM_2.5 space and provided data support for urban-scale health effects and environmental epidemiological studies.

Key words： AOD GWR PM_2.5 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Received: 16 April 2019

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	Articles by authors
	FU Hong-chen
	SUN Yan-ling
	WANG Bin
	CHEN Li
	ZHANG Hui
	GAO Shuang
	MAO Jian
	JING Yue
	SHAO Si-lu

Cite this article:

FU Hong-chen,SUN Yan-ling,WANG Bin等. Estimation of PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on AOD data and GWR model[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(11): 4530-4537.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2019/V39/I11/4530

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