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| Characteristics and prediction of greenhouse gas emission from livestock industry in Central China |
| XIE Ting1, ZHANG Hui2, HE Jia-jun3, LIU Yu1, HUANG Kai-wei1, SONG Ming-wei1 |
1. Hubei Key Laboratory of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation, College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;
2. School of Chemistry and Environmental, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China;
3. School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China |
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Abstract The greenhouse gases inventory of central China was calculated according to IPCC guideline, and then a systematical analysis was conduct to reveal the status of animal husbandry in terms of total greenhouse gases emissions and emission intensity. In addition, a Logistic growth model, a Gompertz curve model and other non-linear time series models were used to simulate the livestock numbers and the corresponding greenhouse gases emissions of livestock in central China in 2030. In 2015, the total emissions of central China was 62.8909 million tCO2-eq, with emissions per unit GDP about 11,300tCO2-eq/billion yuan, or emissions per unit meat output about 3.73tCO2-eq/t. In 2030, the total emissions range from 49.90 to 59.33million tCO2-eq according to different model settings. Technical improvement in animal husbandry should be further optimized to promote the greenhouse gases emission efficiency. In addition, plans for keeping reasonable livestock with optimized structure is also essential to reduce the emissions of animal husbandry.
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Received: 28 July 2019
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