最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究

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Abstract

In the current study, we evaluated the effect of extreme low temperature on respiratory diseases in Lanzhou from January 1, 2013 to July 31, 2017 using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based on the daily data of meteorology and hospital visitsfor respiratory diseases.Age (≤ 15years, 16-45years, 46 -60years, ≥ 60years) and gender (male and female) modification were also performed. Results indicatedthe greatestlag effect of average daily minimum temperature (T_min) on relative risks (RRs)for respiratory diseases. The maximum RR value ranged from 0.89 to 1.41 and the response-effect curvewas V-shaped. At lag of 0~4d, the cold effect represented by extreme low temperature was the most significant. Atlag of 5~19d, a new peak appeared near T_min at 0℃, and the cold effect started to decrease, while the heat effect disappeared completely. At lag of 20~30d, the minimum RR value appeared when T_min was -10℃ and the peak value was near the temperature point of 0℃. Lag effect completely disappearedat 22d. Under extreme low temperatures, respiratory diseases showed long-term hysteresis and higherrisksforthe younger ages, while short-term hysteresis and lowerriskforthe older ages. As to the gender, males showed a longer lag effect than females.

Key words： extreme low temperature daily minimum temperature respiratory diseases distributed lag linear and non-linear models

Received: 08 October 2019

PACS:	X18
	X503.1

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	FENG Feng-liu
	ZHANG Yi-fan
	JIAO Hao-ran
	CHENG Bo-wen
	MA Yu-xia

Cite this article:

FENG Feng-liu,ZHANG Yi-fan,JIAO Hao-ran等. Effects of minimumtemperatureonrespiratorydiseasesin Lanzhou[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(4): 1782-1791.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I4/1782

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