未来10年保定市大气PM<sub>2.5</sub>的健康效益预测

Abstract
Figure/Table
References
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (1537 KB) HTML (0 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract Different target scenarios of atmospheric PM_2.5 concentrations in 2020, 2025 and 2030 were set in Baoding, and IER model was applied to assess premature deaths under low, medium and high target scenario for each district and county, taking into account population development trend. Results showed that premature deaths that could be avoided was as high as 1582 to 3840, 5244 to 7902, and 12602 to 23558 in 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively, which were mainly distributed in downtown (Lianchi District, Jingxiu District and Qingyuan District) and the southeast region, taking PM_2.5 concentration in 2017 as the baseline and following the three target scenarios. As the problem of aging becomes more serious, the health benefits from improved environmental quality become more prominent, cardiovascular disease (stroke and ischemic heart disease) account for more deaths than respiratory disease (lung cancer, copd, and acute lower respiratory infections). The number of deaths attributable to stroke was highest when PM_2.5 concentration was higher than 20μg/m³. The number of deaths attributable to ischemic heart disease was highest when PM_2.5 concentration was lower than 10μg/m³. It is suggested that Baoding should pay more attention to densely populated downtown and southeast region when establishing PM_2.5 pollution prevention and control policies, and take into account the types of premature death caused by air pollution at different stages to carry out targeted education and prevention and control.

Key words： PM_2.5 air pollution control premature death Baoding forecast

Received: 23 April 2020

PACS:

X513

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	GUO Yun
	LI Rui-juan
	HUANG Bing-zhao
	JIANG Yu-dan
	WEI Zheng-zheng

Cite this article:

GUO Yun,LI Rui-juan,HUANG Bing-zhao等. Analysis of health effects under the control of PM_2.5 pollution in Baoding[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(12): 5459-5467.

URL:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I12/5459

[1]	周宏春.迫切需要解决危害群众健康的突出环境问题——《国家环境保护"十二五"规划》战略重点解读[J]. 环境与可持续发展, 2011, 36(4):11-15. Zhou H C. Urgent Need to solve the prominent environmental problems that endanger people's health——The strategic key interpretation of the 12th Five-Year Plan for National Environmental Protection[J]. Environment and Sustainable Development, 2011,36(4):11-15.
[2]	阚海东,陈秉衡,汪宏.上海市城区大气颗粒物污染对居民健康危害的经济学评价[J]. 中国卫生经济, 2004,(2):8-11. Kan H D, Chen B H, Wang H. Economic assessment of health impact due to particulate air pollution in urban dreas of Shanghai[J]. Chinese Health Economics, 2004,(2):8-11.
[3]	穆泉,张世秋.中国2001~2013年PM2.5重污染的历史变化与健康影响的经济损失评估[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2015,4:694-706. Mu Q, Zhang S Q. Assessment of the trend of heavy PM2.5 pollution days and economic loss of health effects during 2001~2013[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2015,4:694-706.
[4]	Cohen, A J, Brauer M, Burnett R, et al. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution:an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015[J]. The Lancet, 10082(389):1907-1918.
[5]	US EPA O. Benefits and costs of the clean air act 1990-2020, the second prospective study[EB/OL]. US EPA, 2015-07-08. (2015-07-08)[2018-04-12]. https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/benefits-and-costs-clean-air-act-1990-2020-second-prospective-study.
[6]	US EPA. Health and welfare benefits analyses to support the second section 812 Benefit-Cost analysis of the clean air act[R]. 2011.
[7]	Kim K H, Kabir E, Kabir S. A review on the human health impact of airborne particulate matter[J]. Environment International, 2015,74:136-143.
[8]	刘爱明,杨柳,吴亚玲,等.城市区域大气颗粒物的健康效应研究[J]. 中国环境监测, 2012,(5):19-23. Liu A M, Yang L, Wu Y L, Research on the health effects of atmospheric particulates in city region[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2012,(5):19-23.
[9]	郭新彪,魏红英.大气PM2.5对健康影响的研究进展[J]. 科学通报, 2013,(13):1171-1177. Guo X B, Wei H Y. Progress on the health effects of ambient PM2.5 pollution[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013,(13):1171-1177.
[10]	黄雯,王旗.大气颗粒物化学成分与健康效应的关系及其机制的研究进展[J]. 卫生研究, 2012,(2):323-327. Huang W, Wang Q. Research progress on the relationship between chemical composition of atmospheric particulate matter and health effects and its mechanism[J]. Journal of Hygiene Research, 2012,(2):323-327.
[11]	张晓平,张燕萍,封宝琴,等.太原市大气可吸入颗粒物对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响[J]. 疾病监测, 2007,(8):556-559. Zhang X P, Zhang Y P, Feng B Q, et al. Effects of PM10 on the mortality of cerebrocardiovascular diseases in Taiyuan[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2007,(8):556-559.
[12]	陈卫红,曹丽敏,刘跃伟,等.空气细颗粒物与呼吸系统的健康损害[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2016,(3):1-4. Chen W H, Cao L M, Liu Y W, et al. The adverse health effects of atmosphere fine particulate matter on respiratory system[J]. Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, 2016,(3):1-4.
[13]	Burnett R T, Pope C A Ⅲ, Ezzati M, et al. An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2014,122(4):397-403.
[14]	Maji K J, Dikshit A K, Arora M, et al. Estimating premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure and benefit of air pollution control policies in China for 2020[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2018, 612:683.
[15]	Wang J, Xing J, Mathur R, et al. Historical trends in PM2.5-Related premature mortality during 1990~2010 across the Northern Hemisphere[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2016,125(3):184-192.
[16]	Song C, He J, Wu L, et al. Health burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 in China[J]. Environmental Pollution, 2017,223:575-586.
[17]	Yu A Y, Jia G S, Yiu J X, et al. Estimation of PM2.5 concentration efficiency and potential public mortality reduction in Urban China[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2018,15(3):529.529.DOI:10.3390/ijerph15030529.
[18]	Xie Y, Dai H, Dong H, et al. Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China:A provincial-level analysis[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2016,115(9):220-229.
[19]	Huang J, Pan X C, Guo X B, et al. Health impact of China's Air pollution prevention and control action plan:an analysis of national air quality monitoring and mortality data[J]. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2018,2(7):e313-e323.
[20]	张秉玲,牛静萍,曹娟,等.兰州市大气污染与居民健康效应的时间序列研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2011,1(2):P.1-6. Zhang B L, Niu J P, Cao J, et al. Time-series analysis of air pollutants and their health effect on residents in Lanzhou[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2011,1(2):P.1-6.
[21]	陈献.北京市冬季PM2.5污染对呼吸、循环系统疾病影响的时间序列分析[D]. 石家庄:河北医科大学, 2016. Chen X. Time series analysis of the effects of PM2.5 pollution on respiratory and circulatory diseases in Winter in Beijing[D]. Shijiazhuang:Heibei medical university.
[22]	程娟.大气颗粒物污染对城区居民呼吸系统健康效应的研究[D]. 武汉:华中科技大学, 2016. Chen J. Exposure to ambient particulate matter air pollution and respiratory health effects among city residents[D]. Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2016.
[23]	河北省人民政府.河北省打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动方案[EB/OL]. 2018-8-23. Hebei Provincial People's Government. A three-year action plan for Hebei province to win the battle for blue Skies[EB/OL]. 2018-08-23.
[24]	GB3095-2012环境空气质量标准[S]. GB3095-2012 Ambient air quality standards[S].
[25]	WHO. Air quality guidelines-global update 2005[R]. WHO Press, World Health Organization, 20Avenue Appia, 1211Geneva 27, Switzerland, 2006.
[26]	魏丽莹.京津冀协同发展背景下"二孩政策"对京津冀人口规模及结构的影响研究[J]. 中国人力资源开发, 2018,35(1):122-133. Wei L Y. Effect of "Two-child Policy" on population scale and demographic structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. Human Resource Development of China, 2018,35(1):122-133.
[27]	China Development Research Foundation. China in 2030:The future demographic[R]. 2019.
[28]	Burnett R T, Pope C A Ⅲ, Ezzati M. An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2014,122(4):397-403.
[29]	Apte J S, Marshall J D, Cohen, A J, et al. Addressing global mortality from ambient PM2.5[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 49(13):8057-8066.
[30]	中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心,国家卫生计生委统计信息中心.中国死因监测数据集(2014)[M]. 北京:科学普及出版社, 2015. The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, The People's republic of China. China cause-of-death surveillance data set (2014)[M]. Beijing:Science Popularization Press, 2015.
[31]	中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心,国家卫生计生委统计信息中心.中国死因监测数据集(2015)[M]. 北京:中国科学技术出版社, 2016. The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, The People's republic of China. China cause-of-death surveillance data set (2015)[M]. Beijing:Science Popularization Press, 2016.
[32]	中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心,国家卫生计生委统计信息中心.中国死因监测数据集(2016)[M]. 北京:中国科学技术出版社, 2017. The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, The People's republic of China. China cause-of-death surveillance data set (2016)[M]. Beijing:Science Popularization Press, 2017.
[33]	杨冬冬,赵树云,张华,等.未来全球PM2.5浓度时空变化特征的模拟[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017,4:1201-1212. Yang D D, Zhao S H, Zhang H, et al. Simulation of global distribution of temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration in the future[J]. China Environmental Science, 2017,4:1201-1212.
[34]	王书肖,赵斌,吴烨,等.我国大气细颗粒物污染防治目标和控制措施研究[J]. 中国环境管理, 2015,7(2):37-43. Wang S X, Zhao B, Wu Y, et al. Target and measures to prevent and control ambient fine particle pollution in China[J]. Environmental conformity Assessment, 2015,7(2):37-43.
[35]	杨景超,张于思,江艳梅,等.基于西安市空气PM2.5治理模型的空气质量控制管理[J]. 中国市场, 2018,13:105-108. Yang J C, Zhang Y S, Jiang Y M, et al. Air quality control management based on Xi'an Air PM2.5 governance model[J]. China Marketing, 2018,13:105-108.
[36]	陈仁杰,陈秉衡,阚海东.大气细颗粒物控制对我国城市居民期望寿命的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014,34(10):2701-2705. Chen R J, Chen B H, Kan H D. Impacts of controlling ambient fine particulate pollution on life expectancy among Chinese urban residents[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(10):2701-2705.
[37]	Cao J, Yang C, Li J, et al. Association between long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and mortality in China:A cohort study[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2011,186(2/3):1594-1600.
[38]	Liu M, Huang Y, Ma Z, et al. Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China:2004~2012[J]. Environment international, 2017,98(1):75-81.
[39]	杨静,殷鹏,曾新颖,等.2006~2016年中国室外空气污染的归因死亡分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2018,39(11):1449-1453. Yang J, Yin P, Zeng X Y, et al. Deaths attributed to ambient air pollution in China between 2006 and 2016[J]. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, 2018,39(11):1449-1453.
[40]	王任洪.兰州市大气污染与呼吸、循环系统疾病死亡的时间序列分析[D]. 兰州:兰州大学, 2017. Wang R H. The time series analysis of air pollution and the mortality caused by rrespiratory and circulatory system disease in Lanzhou City[D]. Lanzhou:Lanzhou University, 2017.
[41]	苏健婷,杜婧,王春梅,等.大气污染物对北京市常住居民死亡影响的时间序列研究[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2018,35(5):49-52. Su J T, Du J, Wang C M, et al. Relationship between air pollutants and mortality of resident population in Beijing:a time-series analysis[J]. Journal of Environment and Health, 2018,35(5):49-52.
[42]	杨敏娟,潘小川.北京市大气污染与居民心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2008,(4):294-297. Yang M J, Pan X C. Time-series Analysis of Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China[J]. Journal of Environment and Health, 2008,(4):294-297.
[43]	常倩,叶云杰,汪庆庆,等.南京市大气污染物与居民心脑血管疾病死亡的相关性[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2017,34(12):1041-1045. Chang Q, Ye Y J, Wang Q Q, et al. Correlation between air pollutants and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Nanjing[J]. Journal of Environmental & Occupational Medicine, 2017,34(12):1041-1045.
[44]	陈仁杰.复合型大气污染对我国17城市居民健康效应研究[D]. 上海:复旦大学, 2013. Chen R J. The time series analysis of air pollution and the mortality caused by respiratory and circulatory system disease in Lanzhou City[D]. Shanghai:Fudan University, 2013.
[45]	钟梦婷.西安市大气污染物暴露健康风险与健康效应评价[D]. 西安:西安建筑科技大学, 2019. Zhong M T. Health risk and health impact assessment of exposure to air pollutants in Xi'an[D]. Xi'an:XI'AN University of Architecture and Technology.
[46]	Maji K J, Dikshit A K, Arora M, et al. Estimating premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure and benefit of air pollution control policies in China for 2020[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018, 6:683-693.