基于配额指标重要性视角的中国碳排放配额再分配

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Abstract This paper puts forward the idea of using the "synchronous trend of change" in carbon emissions to measure the importance of quota indicators that distributes carbon emission quotas in various provinces of China. Firstly, based on the principles of fairness and efficiency, the influence factors of carbon emissions are selected as allocation indicators. Secondly, the grey correlation method is adopted to calculate the "synchronous trend" of each indicator and carbon emissions in each region, so as to obtain the weight of each indicator in quota allocation. Finally, the carbon emission quota and emission space of 29provinces from 2020 to 2030 are calculated. The results show that indicators such as population and economic are strongly correlated with local carbon emissions. Therefore, they should be attached more importance to. Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shandong and Shanghai have the largest quotas, while Ningxia, Guizhou, Qinghai, Jilin and Xinjiang have the fewest ones. According to our analysis, Beijing has surplus carbon emission space; the space for Zhejiang and other four provinces is quite saturated.; and the situation faced by Shandong and other three provinces and regions is more severe because of spillover, where the pressure to reduce emissions will be extremely heavy in the next decade.

Key words： grey correlation analysis allocation of carbon emission quota equity and efficiency principles

Received: 20 April 2020

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X196

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	ZHOU Di
	WANG Wen-jie
	CHEN Zi-jia

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ZHOU Di,WANG Wen-jie,CHEN Zi-jia. Research on the redistribution of carbon emission quotas in China based on the importance of indicators to carbon emissions[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(12): 5551-5560.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I12/5551

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