基于贝叶斯公式的不确定性水环境容量研究——以北运河为例

Abstract
Figure/Table
References
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (1438 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract Considering the uncertainty of water environment, an uncertain water environmental capacity calculating method based on Bayesian formula was demonstrated in this study, and it was applied to Beiyunhe river basin for its validation. With the knowledge of Bayesian formula, the probability distributions of 5 random variables which were involved in the calculation of water environmental capacity, including water flow, flow velocity, pollutant concentration, integrated attenuation coefficient of pollutants and water environmental capacity itself, were presented. The results showed that the probability distributions of the water environmental capacity of 10 river reaches in Beiyunhe river were all light tailed distribution. Water flow and length of the river reaches had the greatest impact on the distribution. Compared with the traditional calculating method of water environmental capacity, uncertain water environmental capacity calculating method generated the distribution of water environmental capacity, which not only presented the knowledge of the former, but also took the randomness of each parameter and observed data into account to further "correct" the former, so that we can understand water environment with a better comprehensive description.

Key words： water environmental capacity uncertainty Bayesian formula Beiyunhe river

Received: 08 July 2020

PACS:

X52

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	CAO Ruo-xin
	ZENG Wei-hua
	LI Qing
	MA Peng-yu

Cite this article:

CAO Ruo-xin,ZENG Wei-hua,LI Qing等. Uncertain water environmental capacity based on Bayesian formula-taking Beiyunhe river as example[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(2): 743-754.

URL:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I2/743

[1]	Leon Petrosjan, Georges Zaccour. Time-consistent Shapley value allocation of pollution cost reduction[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2003,27(3):381-398.
[2]	Eric J. Jokela, Philip M. Dougherty, Timothy A. Martin. Production dynamics of intensively managed loblolly pine stands in the southern United States:a synthesis of seven long-term experiments[J]. Forest Ecology and Management, 2004,192(1):117-130.
[3]	Yang Yi, C. Kwei Lin. Effects of biomass of caged Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and aeration on the growth and yields in an integrated cage-cum-pond system[J]. Aquaculture, 2001,195(3):253-267.
[4]	曲衍华,崔文科,孙涛.东母猪河水环境容量研究[J]. 环境监测管理与技术, 1995,(1):21-25.Qu Y H, Cui W K, Sun T. Study on the Water Environmental Capacity of Dongmuzhu River[J]. The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring, 1995,(1):21-25.
[5]	尹真真.规划环评中水环境容量计算参数取值的探讨[J]. 科学技术创新, 2019,(23):7-8.Yin Z Z. Discussion on the calculation parameters of water environment capacity in planning environmental impact assessment[J]. Science and Technological Innovation, 2019,(23):7-8.
[6]	黄娟,逄勇,邢雅囡.控制单元核定及水环境容量核算研究——以江苏省太湖流域为例[J]. 环境保护科学, 2020,46(1):30-36.Huang J, Feng Y, Xing Y N. Study on Control Unit Verification and Water Environmental Capacity Calculation——A Case Study of Taihu Basin in Jiangsu[J]. Environmental Protection Science, 2020,46(1):30-36.
[7]	张福旺,刘盼盼,乔创,等.洛河水环境容量的研究[J]. 环境保护科学, 2018,44(5):95-100.Zhang F W, Liu P P, Qiao C, et al. Study of Water Environmental Capacity in Luo River[J]. Environmental Protection Science, 2018, 44(5):95-100.
[8]	周孝德,郭瑾珑,程文,等.水环境容量计算方法研究[J]. 西安理工大学学报, 1999,(3):3-8.Zhou X D, Guo J L, Cheng W. The Comparison of the Environmental Capacity Calculation Methods[J]. XI AN University of Technology, 1999,(3):3-8.
[9]	USEPA. Guidance for water quality based decisions:The TMDL process[R]. Washington DC, USA:US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water Regulations and Standards, 1991:9-11.
[10]	Ecker J G. A geometric programming model for optimal allocation of stream dissolved oxygen[J]. Institute of Management Sciences, 1975,21(6):658-668.
[11]	ReVelle C, Loucks D, Lynn W. A management model for water quality control[J]. Water Pollution Control Federation, 1968,39(7).
[12]	曾维华,王华东.保守性污染物风险水环境容量的随机估算模式研究[J]. 重庆环境科学, 1991,(2):17-22.Zeng W H, Wang H D. Research on random estimation model of conservative pollutant risk water environment capacity[J]. Chongqing Environmental Science, 1991,(2):17-22.
[13]	夏军,张祥伟.河流水质灰色非线性规划的理论与应用[J]. 水利学报, 1993,(12):1-9,17.Xia J, Zhang X W. Theory and application of grey nonlinear programming for river water quality[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1993,(12):1-9,17.
[14]	钟鸣,周刚,高运法,等.基于不确定性方法的河流水环境容量计算[J]. 人民长江, 2020,51(3):31-36.Zhong M, Zhou G, Gao F Y, et al. Calculation on river water environmental capacity based on uncertainty method[J].Yangtze River, 2020,51(3):31-36.
[15]	张明,张建云,金菊良,等.蒙特卡罗法求解湖库未确知水环境容量[J]. 水电能源科学, 2008,26(6):33-35,153.Zhang M, Zhang J Y, Jin J L, et al. Calculation of unascertained water environmental capacity in lake and reservoir based on Monte-Carlo Method[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2008,26(6):33-35,153.
[16]	陈龙,曾维华.基于区间数理论的河流水环境容量计算[J]. 人民黄河, 2013,35(11):64-66.Chen L, Zeng W H. Based on the interval number theory to calculate the river water environmental carrying capacity[J]. Yellow River, 2013,35(11):64-66.
[17]	邢肖鹏,张园园,冯民权.基于盲数理论的汾河新店-入黄口段水环境容量及削减量研究[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2011,39(5):73-78.Xing X P, Zhang Y Y, Feng M Q. Water environmental capacity based on blind number theory in the section of Xindian-Ruhuangkou of Fen River[J]. Journal of Northwest A & F University (Natrual Science Edition), 2011,39(5):73-78.
[18]	Gao S D, Meng Y, Luo Y Y.The calculation of the river water environmental carrying capacity based on the blind number[J]. IOP Conference Series:Earth and Environmental Science, 2018,189(5):41-45.
[19]	路雨,苏保林.河流纳污能力计算方法比较[J]. 水资源保护, 2011,27(4):5-9,47.Lu Y, Su B L. Comparison of water environment capacity calculation methods for a river system[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2011, 27(4):5-9,47.
[20]	SL246-2006水域纳污能力计算规程[S].SL246-2006 Allowable pollutant assimilative capacity of water bodies[S].
[21]	张永良,刘培哲.水环境容量综合手册[G]. 北京:清华大学出版社, 1991.Zhang Y L, Liu P Z. Comprehensive handbook of water environmental capacity[G]. Beijing:Tsinghua University Press, 1991.
[22]	GB 3838-2002地表水环境质量标准[S].GB 3838-2002 Environmental quality standards for surface water[S].
[23]	邢广军.P-Ⅲ曲线拟合软件的研发与应用[J]. 水文, 2009,29(2):74-77.Xing G J. Development and application of P-Ⅲ curve fitting software[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2009,29(2):74-77.
[24]	李永坤,张少焱,张书函,等.基于MATLAB GUI的P-Ⅲ型频率曲线的实现[J]. 人民黄河, 2016,38(5):19-21,26.Li Y K, Zhang S Y, Zhang S H, et al. P-Ⅲ frequency curve based on MATLAB GUI[J]. Yellow River, 2016,38(5):19-21,26.
[25]	周爱霞,张行南.优化适线法在水文频率分析中的应用[J]. 人民长江, 2007,(6):38-39.Zhou A X, Zhang X N. Application of optimal fitting method in hydrological frequency analysis[J]. Yangtze River, 2007,(6):38-39.
[26]	王洪春.贝叶斯公式与贝叶斯统计[J]. 重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版), 2010,12(3):203-205.Wang H C. Research on Bayesian Formula and Bayesian Statistics[J]. Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology (Natural Sciences Edition), 2010,12(3):203-205.
[27]	Delignette-Muller M L, Dutang C. Fitdistrplus:An R package for fitting distributions[J]. Journal of Statistical Software, 2015,64(1):1-34.
[28]	刘德文,于卉,王立明.海河流域纳污能力与限制排污总量分析[J]. 海河水利, 2006,(6):4-6.Liu D W, Yu H, Wang L M. Analysis of the Haihe River Basin's pollution receiving capacity and limitation[J]. Haihe Water Resources, 2006,(6):4-6.
[29]	张培培.北京市北运河COD降解系数影响因素试验研究[C]//2017中国环境科学学会科学与技术年会论文集(第二卷).中国环境科学学会:中国环境科学学会, 2017:10.Zhang P P. Experimental study on influencing factors of COD degradation coefficient in Beijing Beiyunhe River[C]//Proceedings of the 2017 Science and Technology Conference of Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences (Volume 2). Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences:Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences, 2017:10.
[30]	陈丁江,吕军,金培坚,等.非点源污染河流水环境容量的不确定性分析[J]. 环境科学, 2010,31(5):1215-1219.Chen D J, Lv J, Jin P J, et al. Uncertainty analysis of water environmental capacity in the nonpoint source polluted river[J]. Environmental Science, 2010,31(5):1215-1219.
[31]	孙秀玲,霍太英,褚君达.水环境容量的不确定性分析计算[J]. 人民黄河, 2005,(3):34-36.Sun X L, Huo T Y, Zhu J D. Uncertainty analysis and calculation of water environment capacity[J]. Yellow River, 2005,(3):34-36.
[32]	李响,陆君,钱敏蕾,等.流域污染负荷解析与环境容量研究——以安徽太平湖流域为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014,34(8):2063-2070.Li X, Lu J, Qian M L, et al. Study on pollution loading and water environmental capacity in watershed——A case study of Taiping Lake Basin, Anhui Province, China[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(8):2063-2070.
[33]	范小杉,何萍,陈帆,等.沿海港口总体规划生态承载力环评技术方案[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017,37(5):1971-1978.Fan X S, He P, Chen F, et al. Technical solutions for strategic environmental assessment on ecological carrying capacity-coastal ports master plan[J]. China Environmental Science, 2017,37(5):1971-1978.
[34]	王寿兵,马小雪,张韦倩,等.上海淀山湖水环境容量评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2013,33(6):1137-1140.Wang S B, Ma X X, Zhang W Q, et al. Water environmental capacity assessment of Dianshan Lake in Shanghai[J]. China Environmental Science, 2013,33(6):1137-1140.
[35]	石雯倩,吕军,施练东.汤浦水库总磷环境容量的计算及不确定性分析[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2015,15(6):321-324.Shi W Q, Lv J, Shi L D. Calculation and uncertainty analysis of total phosphorus environmental capacity of Tangpu Reservoir[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2015,15(6):321-324.
[36]	陈龙,曾维华,吴昊.渭河干流关中段季节性水环境容量研究[J]. 人民黄河, 2015,37(2):72-74,77.Chen L, Zeng W H, Wu H. Study on seasonal water environmental capacity in Guanzhong Section of Weihe River[J]. Yellow River, 2015,37(2):72-74,77.
[37]	崔丹,李瑞,陈岩,等.基于结构方程的流域水环境承载力评价——以湟水流域小峡桥断面上游为例[J]. 环境科学学报, 2019, 39(2):349-357.Cui D, Li R, Chen Y, et al. An evaluation of the water environmental carrying capacity using structural equation modeling:A case study of the upstream areas of Xiaoxia Bridge Section in Huangshui River Basin[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2019,39(2):349-357.