保护地生态承载力不确定性多目标优化模型研究——以黄河源区玛多县为例

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Abstract “Threshold value of human activity intensity” can be defined as the essence of integrated ecological carrying capacity of protected areas. In order to explore its definition, we established an optimization model of ecological carrying capacity of protected areas by using uncertainty multi-objective optimization method. The model was used to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity and optimize the scale structure of the protected area in Maduo County, the Yellow River source region. The results show that the conflict between grass and livestock was the bottleneck restricting the social and economic development of Maduo County. According to the goal of “Three-River Source National Park General Plan”, animal husbandry development was relatively rapid while ensuring the number of wildlife population. The scale of domestic yak in Maduo County will reach 287615~363303 sheep units in 2020, 302752~438991 sheep units in 2025, and 378440~514679 sheep units in 2035, respectively. Considering the limitation of the ecological environment capacity of the protected area, the scale of population and tourism should be controlled in Maduo County the source region of the Yellow River. The population scale range of herdsmen is 12500~16500 in 2020, 16500~18300 in 2025, and 18630~21350 in 2035, respectively. The largest tourism scale is 41130 person-time in 2020, 47000 person-time in 2025 and 53960 person-time in 2035. In the planning target scenario, the development of tourism slows down, which can be attributed to the pilot project of Three-River Source National Park and the restriction of local planning on tourism development, aiming to protect local biodiversity and ecological environment.

Key words： ecological carrying capacity multi-objective optimization stocking capacity Maduo County

Received: 18 July 2020

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X171

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	WANG Hui-hui
	ZENG Wei-hua
	MA Bing-ran
	LI Qing

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WANG Hui-hui,ZENG Wei-hua,MA Bing-ran等. Ecological carrying capacity of protected areas uncertain type multi-objective optimum model-Using Maduo County in the source region of the Yellow River as example[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(3): 1300-1310.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I3/1300

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