5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究

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Abstract Concerning the current situation of 5G technology development, this paper predicts direct carbon emissions generated by 5G base stations in the next 20 years, with Holt index smoothing method and dynamic analysis. The predictive model showed that the construction of 5G base stations might be saturated around 2038, with the number of 14.34 million. Considering the development of 5G technology and its promotion of other industries that may affect the carbon emissions, the input-output method and grayscale time prediction method were also used to evaluate the indirect carbon emissions. The results show that, if 5G station work in low-load (lower than 30%), direct carbon emission will be 142.61 Mt per year in 2038 when carbon emission peak; or else it would be 196.26 Mt in a full-load situation. Based on two different peak-reaching scenarios of carbon emissions in China, the impacts of direct and indirect carbon emissions caused by 5G technology on peak-reaching time and peak values were comprehensively analyzed. Last, the robustness test was conducted on the predicted results. The results revealed that the impact of 5G technology on carbon emissions of industries will reach its peak in 2030 under the actual GDP scenario, with the value of 255.96 Mt, and the increase of overall carbon emissions caused by 5G technology before 2030 was dominated by indirect carbon emission, while the increase of social carbon emission after 2030 was dominated by direct carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the development of 5G technology, the peak time of China's carbon emission will be delayed by at least 2 years, and the corresponding peak carbon emission would be increased by at least 383.96 Mt. It also implied that the Chinese government had to reduce the energy consumption level of base stations, control the number of base stations and avoid the low-load operation caused by repeated construction of 5G base stations, to reduce the additional carbon emissions caused by 5G and control the total amount of carbon dioxide.

Key words： 5G technology peak of carbon emission indirect carbon emission scenario analysis

Received: 20 July 2020

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	TAN Meng
	PENG Yi
	MA Rong
	QIN Han-shi

Cite this article:

TAN Meng,PENG Yi,MA Rong等. Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(3): 1447-1454.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I3/1447

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