基于LMDI的城市化不同阶段PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度影响因素——以我国5个特大城市群为例

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Abstract Taking five megalopolises in China as cases, this paper divided the period from 2000 to 2015 into four different urbanization stages with the indexes of GDP per capita and industrial structure. Then, the driving mechanism and contributions of emission intensity, energy intensity, economic output and population scale on PM_2.5 concentrations were explored for different urbanization stages, using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model (LMDI). The results showed that PM_2.5 concentrations of these megalopolises increased in early stages and then decreased in the later. Generally, economic output and population scale had positive effects on PM_2.5 concentrations. Especially, the former played a dominant role in promoting PM_2.5 concentrations. Meanwhile, emission intensity and energy intensity had negative effects on PM_2.5 concentrations, and the former was the main factor restraining the increase of PM_2.5 concentrations. The cumulative contributions of energy intensity appeared vague during the primary and middle industrialized stage, while showed negative in the late industrialized and developed stage. The cumulative contributions of economic output and population scale were both positive during the whole stages, while the contributions of economic output had significantly increased. The cumulative contribution of emission intensity was negative, and its absolute value increased continuously. These results could provide a basis for understanding the driving mechanism and contribution of different factors on PM_2.5 concentration of megalopolis, and thus could support government in making related environmental protection policies.

Key words： urbanization stage LMDI decomposition method PM_2.5 concentration megalopolis

Received: 23 March 2021

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X513

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	WANG Qiu-hong
	LI Wei-jie
	WANG Yong
	FU Li
	GAO Min

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WANG Qiu-hong,LI Wei-jie,WANG Yong等. Socio-economic factors of PM_2.5 concentrations in different urbanization stages based on LMDI: A case study of China's five mega-large urban agglomerations[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(11): 5069-5078.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I11/5069

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