基于气溶胶三维变分同化天津PM<sub>2.5</sub>数值预报研究

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Abstract Based on a 3-DVAR assimilation method of aerosol, this paper developed aerosol assimilation module applied to air quality model in Tianjin, analyzed the influence of observation area on PM_2.5 forecasts through data assimilation and prediction experiments during two heavy pollution episodes in Tianjin, and then analyzed the impact of aerosol data assimilation on PM_2.5 forecast in Tianjin by conducting experiments with data assimilation over a month, in order to provide support for improving the capability of air quality forecast in Tianjin. The results showed that the attenuation scale of horizontal correlation for background errors was about 50km, and the correlation coefficient between the lowest level of model and the height of 400m decreased to about 0.6. The observation area had a significant impact on the assimilation results. During heavy pollution episodes, the improvement of PM_2.5 forecast continued about 12 hours when only observations in Tianjin were used for data assimilation, while the improvement continued above 24 hours when all observations within the model domain were used. 3-DVAR assimilation of surface PM_2.5 observations significantly improved PM_2.5 numerical forecast over Tianjin. The correlation coefficient between observation and forecast increased from 0.74 to 0.87, the root mean square error decreased from 32.3μg/m³ to 22.4μg/m³, and the mean relative error decreased from 39.9% to 27.1%. The improvement was the most significant at the initial time, and decreased with forecast time increasing. PM_2.5 concentration forecasts within 24 hours were improved obviously which were much better within 14hours.

Key words： aerosol data assimilation 3-DVAR numerical forecast

Received: 28 April 2021

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X513

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	Articles by authors
	YANG Xu
	TANG Ying-xiao
	CAI Zi-ying
	HAN Su-qin
	DONG Qi-ru
	YANG Jian-bo
	ZHU Yu-qiang
	FAN Wen-yan

Cite this article:

YANG Xu,TANG Ying-xiao,CAI Zi-ying等. Impact of aerosol data assimilation with 3-DVAR method on PM_2.5 forecast over Tianjin[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(12): 5476-5484.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I12/5476

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