基于复合指纹图谱和贝叶斯模型的茅尾海悬浮颗粒物源解析

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Abstract Toreveal the source of suspended particulate matter in Maoweisea, samples of potential sources of suspended particulate matter such as mangrove soil, embankment soil, estuarine particulate matter, Maowei Sea sediment and particulate matter outside the Bay in Maowei Sea Basin were collected. Based on multivariate statistical composite fingerprinting method, the optimal fingerprint factor combination was formatted, and then the contribution rates of five potential sources to suspended particulate matter in Maowei Sea are obtained by Bayesian mixed model. The results show that five fingerprint elements of Mg, Al, Mn, Pb and Fe can be used as the best combination of fingerprint factors, and the cumulative discrimination accuracy rate is 78%. The results of the Bayesian mixed model showed that the suspended particulate matter in Maowei Sea is mainly derived from the estuary and the outer bay transport, and the contribution rate reaches 58.9% and 68.6%. Among them, the area near the estuary is mainly affected by the river inflow, and the contribution rate of estuarine particulate matter reaches 42.2%~58.9%; In the areas close to the outer bay, the contribution rate of particulate matter outside the bay was 44.9%~68.6%. The contribution rate of sediment at each point was low, and the contribution rate of mangrove soil and embankment soil was about 10%. In general, particulate matter brought in by estuarine inflow and tidal action is the main source of suspended particulate matter in the Maowei Sea.

Key words： Bayesian model composite fingerprinting particulate matter source resolution

Received: 12 November 2021

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	LIU Hai-xia
	LI Su-xia
	LIU Guang-long
	HUANG Kai-xuan
	YANG Bin
	SU Jing-jun
	WANG Jie
	ZHANG Jin-yi
	HOU Jing-yao

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LIU Hai-xia,LI Su-xia,LIU Guang-long等. Analysis of the source of suspended particulate matter in the Maowei Sea based on composite fingerprint map and Bayesian model[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(6): 2844-2851.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I6/2844

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