中原城市群区域碳储量的时空变化和预测研究

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Abstract In order to effectively evaluate the carbon reserve of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration, dynamic carbon density data was obtained by using the grey prediction model, combined with the Dyna-CLUE model and the InVEST model, which were used to dynamically evaluate the carbon reserve evolution characteristics under different scenarios of land use change, as well as the impact of urban development on carbon reserve from 2005 to 2030. The results showed that the carbon reserve of the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration from 2005 to 2020 were 1689.59×10⁶t, 2035.36×10⁶t, 2066.34×10⁶t and 2093.05×10⁶t, showing a continuously increasing trend; In 2030, the carbon reserve under the economic development scenario, ecological protection scenario and coordinated economic and ecological development scenario were 2162.45×10⁶t, 2179.39×10⁶t and 2174.28×10⁶t, respectively. The carbon reserve was at the minimum under the economic development scenario and at the maximum under the ecological protection scenario. The change of carbon reserve was closely related to that of land use area, which is mainly manifested as follows. The decrease of the cultivated land area resulted in an increase of about 250×10⁶t of carbon reserve, the expansion of forest land resulted in an increase of about 103.4×10⁶t of carbon reserve, and the expansion of construction land resulted in an increase of about 87.77×10⁶t of carbon reserve. The area of cultivated land and grassland had a weak negative correlation with the total carbon reserve, and the area of forest land, water area, construction land and unused land had a strong positive correlation with the total carbon reserve. From 2005 to 2030, the carbon reserve of the 30cities in the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration ranged from 11.38×10⁶t to 214.24×10⁶t, respectively. The changes in carbon reserve reflected that urban land carbon emissions has peaked by 2030, and the coordinated economic and ecological development scenario might be more suitable for future cities.

Key words： Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration land use Dyna-CLUE model InVEST model carbon storage

Received: 30 November 2021

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	HE Xiao-hui
	XU Ya-ting
	FAN Xue-feng
	GENG Qing-ling
	TIAN Zhi-hui

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HE Xiao-hui,XU Ya-ting,FAN Xue-feng等. Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of regional carbon storage in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(6): 2965-2976.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I6/2965

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